When I look at the polls, about 90% of voters say they will vote this year. But the biggest we’ve had in living memory was well under 70%. Some of the people who say they will vote will not do so.
It’s independents who most often say they won’t vote. Maybe that’s right. Maybe it will be particularly independents who don’t vote, seeing two extremely bad choices they don’t want.
But maybe Clinton supporters and/or Trump supporters will tend not to vote. Probably both. It’s a lot easier to vote for somebody you want, than to vote for somebody you really don’t want — because they’re better than the alternative. It’s a lot easier to vote when you’re excited about a possibility than when you’re depressed and you hope to get something very bad instead of something truly disastrous.
Close to 60% of the voters who say they will vote for Clinton, say they primarily want to stop Trump. And around 55% of the voters who say they will vote for Trump, say they primarily want to stop Clinton.
It’s an unenthusiastic election this time around. Easy to stay depressed. There’s really nothing to look forward to, a bad dreary time with maybe moments of terror.
Two bad choices. It’s like, you have $15,000 in the bank, would you rather spend it getting your house painted or have your teeth pulled and get dentures. You don’t have enough money for both. One way, the house loses value and eventually rots away. The other way, your teeth rot and painfully fall out. Either way you will have no cash afterward. You have to choose which outcome you want less.