Jim Atlas | 4/4/2020
By now, anyone paying attention to the COVID-19 outbreak knows about “flattening the curve” and has seen an adaptation of the following graphic:
It suggests that with a number of protective measures, such as “social distancing,” we can delay the peak of the outbreak and stay within the capacity of the healthcare system, saving countless lives.
It’s a graphic that inspires hope. It’s a graphic that makes us feel in control. It’s also a graphic that is immensely misleading.
Why? Because looking at it, one could easily believe that even without protective measures, much of the population would still have access to necessary health care.
Moreover, with no axis labels, the sheer number of people impacted and the prolonged time protective measures would be need to be in place in order to avoid catastrophe is lost in the mix.
In reality, the curve without protective measures is much steeper and peaks much further above healthcare system capacity than is commonly believed.
And, unless resolute proactive action to contain the virus is otherwise sustained, even strong reactive social distancing measures may not be enough to avoid fierce waves of infection.
