Does Europe have the worst Covid19? #sars #coronavirus #covid19 #deathrate #italy
We can compare the death rate of Italy with the beginning of Wuhan.
#sars #coronavirus #covid19 #deathrate #italy
update 13/3
update 11/3
update 10/3:
40% is deathrate for COVID19 in Italy. Lockdown made it 20% in China. Then Lockdown with medicine 6%. This is serious a virus, without lockdown 40% dies.
Yesterday in Italy, 107 deaths, now today, 148, so Deathrate grows 38%, so tomorrow will be about 205 deaths.
The death rate at the beginning of Covid19 is only about China, so we can compare it with Italy.
Thousands more per country will have covid19
Data all deaths and infected Italy, first week.
31st of January first case in Italy, one month after Wuhan confirmed first Covid19 cases.
This was the first case. 2 known infected, and from China.
It took some days just like in Wuhan to find some cases. And it took a while before a few were confirmed cases. Almost a month to the next death of Covid19.
We have from Wuhan data from 41 ill and 6 deaths, thus we need to count from there. We can not yet count from the real first cases, as we do not know precisely how the beginning went. We will have to find some days that are about the same development to find the differences between China and Italy.
22nd of February 2020. The second death had 50 cases of infected with Covid19.
The death rate had dropped a little, so this could mean at the beginning of Covid19, the amount of deaths would have been 6 in Wuhan, now in Italy 2. The death rate would be 4% in Italy.
3 deaths, 152 infected, 23rd of February 2020 (Deathrate 2%)
7 deaths, 229 infected, 24th of February (Death rate 3%)
10 deaths 322 infected on 25th of February 2020 (Deathrate 3%)
https://www.thelocal.it/20200225/latest-deaths-coronavirus-italy
12 deaths, 400 infected, on 26th of February 2020 (Deathrate 3%)
17 deaths, 650 infected, on 27th of February 2020 (Deathrate 2.6%)
21 deaths, 888 infected, on 28th of February 2020 (Deathrate 2.3%)
All the above is the first week of data — — — — — — — —
The next data is the second week of data
29th of February, 2020 29 deaths, and 1000 infected. (Deathrate 2.9%)
1st of March, 2020 34 deaths, and 1694 infected (Deathrate 2%)
2nd of March, 2020 52 deaths and 1835 infected (Deathrate 2.8%)
3rd of March, 2020 79 deaths, and 2502 infected (Deathrate 3.1%)
4th of March, 2020 107 deaths, and 3089 infected (Deathrate 3.4%)
5th of March, 2020 148 deaths, and 3800 infected (Deathrate 3.8%)
https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy
6th of March, 2020 That is tomorrow and can be 205 deaths.
Let's find some percentages to predict for the next 2 weeks.
deaths infected Growth infected and Growth deaths
2 50
3 152 — 204 50
7 229 — 50 133
10 322 — 40 42
12 400 — 24 20
17 650 — 62 41
21 888 — 36 23
29 1000 — 12 38
34 1694 — 69 17
52 1835 — 8 52
79 2502 — 36 51
107 3089 — 23 35
148 3800–28 38
Tomorrow: 205 and another about 28% increase I think. And then after a high or low increase, then some more average and constantly lower average. Etc.
So about 1000 more cases. Or like in Wuhan, a drop in new more cases of deaths, but an increase of infected. Like my second data, trying to predict. In the end, they ended up in between my 2 predictions. From this week. As we found medicine to threaten covid19, so all death rates dropped, and there were more cases infected.
It seems like an IQ puzzle, where the next week will have less highest average numbers, and one higher number (which can be in the puzzle an error, it did happen, but will really next week be there an 80% increase?, and the next 90%, etc), and some new low, and some average fitting to this puzzle.
Or every week one in 60% for some weeks, and the rest lowers. Average and some new lows.
24 to 8 (next “new low”)
62 and 69 ( a high one)
Average 40/50 to 20/30 (new lower average)
etc…
It could be because we got the death rate down in total amount of cases. But then this is most likely a lot of the aggressive types because the overall death rate in Italy is higher then Wuhan in those first weeks.
Next week would be something with one day 60% increase, or higher or lower, or about the same, on one day.
Some days 20/30, but lower in 30 and 20. And next 10/20, or right away, high in 10 and 20%. And a low number, lower than 8. Or it will stay the same if the death rate doesn't drop some % in total. The numbers should get a bit lower, but it all seems lots, as it is still a lot of people ill and a bit higher death rate then in Wuhan, at the beginning of the virus. And in Italy, that number even increases, so is this a new type of mild covid19, a bit worse than the mild one before. Or a new aggressive one, or the same, and just less of the mild in Italy? It is increasing, so it could be aggressive is changing again, and to worse, while at same time we fight the disease and find medicine.
Note. I don’t pass 170+ IQ tests, I do below that, and score one of highest normally, on those. But we need a higher IQ to find these puzzles if this will remain. The numbers are so many, at a point we need to be honest, we need higher and higher IQ handling the data, to get quality answers. They handle longer rows of numbers, and will find more details, and find and solve harder more complex ideas.
Growth of cases Italy: Average week 1 of data: 44% week 2 25%. So the next cases for the next day could be 20% or less, and with the puzzle above, some days high, some low, some average growth. Or when the death rate gets worse and worse, an increase of cases too.
Growth of deaths in Italy: week 1 of data: 44% Fits growth of cases. And week 2 of data: 33% and shows a bot more deaths than new cases.
Growth of cases Wuhan: week 1of data: 201% and week 2 of data: 31%
Growth of deaths in Wuhan: week 1 of data: 47% and week 2 of data: 31%
See all the data below for Wuhan.
Comparing the two shows in Wuhan the data started to become equal, and deaths and growth of cases. In Italy, it started equal, but in the second week, there were more deaths than new cases. So the death rate seems to grow. In Wuhan, we see now a death rate goes down compared to the total. Is the medicine not working in Italy? What more could be causing the differences? Does Europe have the most dangerous type of Covid19? Most Dutch cases of Corona are the ones who have been to Italy. Is that also in all other EU countries?
Wuhan confirmed the 31st of December, 2019 the first cases.
Corona SARS can be around a long time, but this type was found at the end of 2019 because of the death rate with pneumonia raised since 2017. While it had dropped a few years before. So, the new rise can be more types of SARS too. It raised most likely in Children, so we need to investigate the total raise of pneumonia since 2017 since we know SARScov2. Because this could be SARS 3, 4, 5, etc.
2 weeks from first data of Wuhan we have
We did not know more, because this was a new virus, and people were discovering this new SARS. They knew for sure from 41 ill and 6 deaths.
So the data we know from the first 14 days are, from the 41 ill, and 6 deaths:
Infected Deaths (Death rate) — Growth of infected and Growth of deaths
41 6 (14% death rate )
446 9 (2% death rate) 987 50
579 17 (3% death rate) 29 88
844 25 (3% death rate) 45 47
1312 41 (3.1% death rate) 55 64
2015 56 (2.77 % death rate) 53 58
2801 80 (2.8% death rate) 39 23
— — — — week 1
4579 106 (2,3% death rate) 63 32
6061 132 (2,2% death rate) 32 24
7816 170 (We also know from this point, an estimate of worldwide ill are actually 78.000, but 7816 are confirmed and 1370 would be severely ill, of these confirmed, and 124 recovered of all patients) (2,2% death rate) 28
9821 213 (2,2% death rate) 25 61
11948 258 (2,2% death rate) 21 21
14000 304 (This remained, I got the number of deaths early that day though, and was waiting on the infected to rise, those infected staid a longer time 14000 and death rate rose very early to this, and remained the day on the 304) (2.1% death rate) 17 17
Discussion
Did Covid 19 start half November in Wuhan, and showing since 2 weeks before the end of the year?
Italy can show the first period of Wuhan.
First one case, and took another month till deaths started. And then we see in Italy comparable the first and a half weeks like the days from half December to the news that SARS2 was found.
The more countries we compare, the more we can reconstruct the beginning of Covid19.
Every new case, in a new country, shows us data about the beginning of Wuhan.
We can study the cases and compare them with Wuhan, and try to reconstruct the data.
Does Italy have also 2 types of Covid19?
- mild
- aggressive
Conclusion
It seems like every new country has a similar beginning of unclear data.
And starts with a few cases, and some deaths, and then grows out to lots of cases and deaths.
Italy shows a bit higher death rate, despite all medicine available and the drop in death rates in the total cases around the world. Did the two people that started corona in Italy, had the aggressive type?
Growth of cases Italy: Average week 1 of data: 44% week 2 25%. So the next cases for the next day could be 20% or less, and with the puzzle above, some days high, some low, some average growth. Or when the death rate gets worse and worse, an increase of cases too.
Growth of deaths in Italy: week 1 of data: 44% Fits growth of cases. And week 2 of data: 33% and shows a bot more deaths than new cases.
Growth of cases Wuhan: week 1of data: 201% and week 2 of data: 31%
Growth of deaths in Wuhan: week 1 of data: 47% and week 2 of data: 31%
See all the data below for Wuhan.
Comparing the two shows in Wuhan the data started to become equal, and deaths and growth of cases. In Italy, it started equal, but in the second week, there were more deaths than new cases. So the death rate seems to grow. In Wuhan, we see now a death rate goes down compared to the total. Is the medicine not working in Italy? What more could be causing the differences? Does Europe have the most dangerous type of Covid19? Most Dutch cases of Corona are the ones who have been to Italy. Is that also in all other EU countries?
