New Day Rising — 2018 NYC Real Estate Predictions
Along with resolutions, the New Year also naturally brings predictions. When it comes to New York real estate, based on data and gut, here are my predictions for 2018:
- New York City will continue to thrive economically and as a destination for career advancement. With Netflix, Amazon, Google and a host of other silicon valley and financial industry heavyweights continuing to invest in their New York operations, there will be a steady influx of jobs creating housing demand for white-collar New Yorkers.
- Mortgage rates will rise sequentially through the year, making today’s 30 year 4.25% deal look very attractive come Q3 & Q4 2018.
- We will continue to see a bifurcated sales market. Studio and 1-Bedroom apartments priced under $1.5m will still be highly coveted in Manhattan and commuting Brooklyn. There will be bidding wars and scarcity in this price range. At the same time, a glut of high-end condos will make apartments priced over $2m readily available for buyers who have put together a good game-plan, and are working with the right agent.
- Rents will stay steady under $5000, but there will be increased softness and concessions in the luxury rental market. If you have $5k to spend on rent a month, you will have fantastic choices, although you really should buy property if you plan on staying here for any period of time.
- Brooklyn will not peak as a destination, but it will shift. Look for the looming L-Train shutdown coming in April 2019 to level off the Williamsburg mania, and shift housing momentum to neighborhoods like Crown Heights, Fort Greene, Prospect Heights, and Ditmas Park where train lines are perceived to be solid.
- Watch for West Harlem, Murray Hill, Prospect Heights, Kensington, Astoria, Sunnyside, and Washington Heights to experience strong growth.
- Investors will continue to move forward in East Harlem and The Bronx.
- The Knicks will not win a championship and Robert Plant will not tour or record with Jimmy Page as “Led Zeppelin” (just testing you, glad you aren’t just skimming)
All this said, there are no iron clad guarantees. The real estate market, like most markets, is influenced by news cycles, elections, legislation and emotions. But, if you believe in New York, it’s almost inevitable that real estate will continue to be a great long term investment into 2018 and beyond.
I hope you are having a wonderful New Year’s Day, and am wishing you every happiness for 2018. I consider myself so lucky to be able to have you in my orbit, and to do this for a living in my favorite city.