Detroit RBs a value play at current ADP
With Detroit transitioning into the post-Calvin Johnson era, Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are two guys you should be targeting in the mid-to-late rounds of all your drafts.
Over his illustrious nine-year career, Calvin Johnson averaged 81 receptions, 1,291 yards, and 9 Tds on 145 targets per season. That leaves a big hole for the Lions to try and replace this season, and two of the guys primed to take on that challenge is Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. For the upside both players offer, their current ADP is way too low.
In PPR leagues, their current ADP shows that you will probably need to spend your 7th-and-8th round picks to grab both RBs. I have no problem grabbing those guys with back-to-back picks to be my 3rd and 4th RBs on the roster. Abdullah is going to have relevance in any format, while Theo Riddick is a high-floor flex play with a top-20 PPR finish under his belt.
In standard leagues, Abdullah’s ADP stays about the same, while Riddick’s ADP drops clear down to an 11th round pick. There is no doubt that Theo thrives more in PPR or 1/2 PPR leagues, but I think he’s going to be a big enough part of the Lions attack that he will have standard league relevance as well.
Ameer Abdullah ADP
(PPR) RB31, Overall 79, 7th Rd — (standard) RB27, Overall 77, 7th Rd
I expect Ameer Abdullah to take a huge step forward in his sophomore season in the NFL. With Calvin Johnson out of the mix, the Lions will need to come out with a more balanced attack that starts with controlling the clock and running the ball. That will start with Abdullah.
In his rookie season, Abdullah finished with 780 offensive yards and only three TDs. Barring any injuries, I don’t see any way those numbers don’t jump up quite a bit. Abdullah should handle the bulk of the Lions carries while still providing decent numbers in the passing game.
Once he has the ball in his hands he is such a versatile player that can beat you in a variety of ways. Not only does he have outstanding speed, quickness, and agility, but he is physical and strong enough that he doesn’t shy away from contact. In fact, at times he welcomes it and tries to drop his shoulder and run through defenders.
In the first GIF, he shows the elite open field quickness that makes him a nightmare to try to bring down in the open field. After bursting through a hole he puts the safety on skates and hits him with a stutter-step, juke move that the defender had no chance of stopping.
In this next clip, Abdullah does a good job of absorbing contact and fighting for a few more yards to finish his run. After running through the first would-be tackle he lowers his shoulder and goes right at Harrison Smith, one of the hardest-hitting players in the league.
Like I mentioned earlier, not only is Abdullah a versatile runner, he also boasts a good set of hands. He finished with 25 catches last year, and I expect those numbers to get up closer to 30–35 in year two. The Lions would be smart to get him the ball in space by any means needed.
Don’t forget to add in the fact that he led the league with over 1,000 kick return yards last season, so if your league awards fantasy point for return yardage I would have no issue spending a late 4th-early 5th round pick to get Abdullah. Those extra return yards really beef up fantasy numbers. In one dynasty league that I own Abdullah in, he finished as the fantasy RB4 last season despite his very average rookie numbers on offense.
Theo Riddick ADP
(PPR) RB38, Overall 96, 8th Rd — (standard) RB45, Overall 132, 11th Rd
Theo Riddick was a gem in PPR leagues last year, a true diamond in the rough. You were able to scoop him up off of waivers in a lot of leagues, and those that did reaped the benefits down the stretch of the fantasy season. He led all RBs in the NFL with 80 receptions on 99 targets. (80.8% Catch Percentage).
Once he had the ball in his hands he was explosive, breaking loose for 697 receiving yards with three scores. Riddick didn’t do a lot on the ground (133 yards, 0 TDs, 43 carries), but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get closer to 50–60 carries while sustaining or improving his production in the passing game.
Not only is Calvin gone, young TE Eric Ebron was carted off the practice field this week with an Achilles injury. Later reports said that it could be minor, but if he is forced to sit out of any regular season action, that means an even bigger piece of the pie should go to Riddick.
Last season Riddick averaged 8.7 yards per catch. A large portion of Riddick’s catches were less than a few yards down the field, making that number even more impressive.
He routinely shook defenders in the open field with his combination of quicks, power, and elusiveness. You can see his unique combination of after-the-catch skills on full display in the first two videos. He turns 3-yard passes into SportsCenter Top 10 plays that move the chains
Most of his catches came out of the backfield, forcing LBs to match-up with him one-on-one in open space quite a bit. Often times Riddick’s quicks were too much for opposing LBs, but he also showed he could line up in the slot and out wide and run crisp enough routes against DBS to earn time lining up as a WR.
Matt Stafford played much better after Jim Bob Cooter took over as the offensive coordinator last season. He will still finish way north of 500 passing attempts this year, and they are going to be creative in coming up with ways to get their RBs the ball in space. I expect to see a healthy mix of draws, screens, and swing routes mixed in the Lions attack next year.
Ameer Abdullah is a must-own quality asset with top-10 RB potential. I think this is the year he breaks out and solidifies himself as one the premier young RB talents. Riddick should finish as a top-25 RB easily in PPR, but I think the Lions will spread the ball around enough that he will have standard league relevance. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him finish as an RB3 in standard leagues. When you can get that type of production in the 11th round I’m jumping on that all-day.