RIP Forecasting

But we are in desperate need of foresight.

The US Elections were the third major event after Brexit and the Colombian peace referendum where the polls were utterly wrong.

German weekly Die Zeit did two scenario stories this year, in which they tried to paint pictures of — at that point — unlikely futures. The first one was Brexit; the other one was Trump. For both, reporters tried to talk to politicians, bureaucrats, policy experts, etc. in Germany and the European Union. Most wouldn’t speak to them, and a few only did off the record. They would say that they weren’t allowed to plan for these futures. That not only had no strategy but mostly not even possible scenarios. Our governments went rather unprepared into maybe the two biggest politically relevant events of this year.

In a world that has become too complex to predict, we need to facilitate new methods to plan for possible futures much more earnestly.