Is Chris Webber a Hall of Famer?
Breaking down the Hall of Fame case for Chris Webber.
The Keltner List is a series of subjective questions formulated by famed sabermetrician Bill James used to help assess whether or not a player should be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
Although the system was designed to evaluate baseball players, with a few minor tweaks it can also be used to assess the Hall-worthiness of basketball players. In this piece I will examine the Hall of Fame chances of Chris Webber.
Was he ever regarded as the best player in basketball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in basketball?
Webber never finished higher than fourth in the MVP voting, and he only had one All-NBA First Team selection, so the answers are clearly no and no.
Was he the best player on his team?
Yes, more often than not he was.
Was he the best player in basketball at his position?
No, he wasn’t. Webber’s best seasons coincided with some of Tim Duncan’s best seasons, and Duncan was pretty clearly regarded as the best power forward in the NBA, not to mention the fact that Karl Malone was still a 20-point, 10-rebound threat on a nightly basis in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Did he have an impact on a number of NBA Finals or Conference Finals?
Not really. None of Webber’s teams advanced to the NBA Finals, although he did play on two conference finalists, the 2001–02 Kings and the 2006–07 Pistons. Webber had a starring role with the Kings, averaging 24.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game against the Lakers in the 2002 Western Conference Finals, but he was more of a supporting player with the Pistons.
Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Yes. Webber’s last All-Star selection came in 2002–03, when he was 29 years old, but he managed to stick around for five more seasons. He played on four different teams in that span, but he started all but two games that he appeared in and averaged 34 minutes per game.
Is he the very best (eligible) basketball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No, there are several players I would put ahead of him, among them Kevin Johnson and Sidney Moncrief.
Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Webber is one of just five retired players in NBA history to average at least 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists per game for his career (minimum 400 games played):
- Elgin Baylor (27.4/13.5/4.3)
- Larry Bird (24.3/10.0/6.3)
- Wilt Chamberlain (30.1/22.9/4.4)
- Billy Cunningham (20.8/10/1/4.0)
- Chris Webber (20/7/9.8/4.2)
The other four players, as you may already know, are in the Hall of Fame. But two things should be noted:
- Webber is close to the arbitrary cutoffs in all three categories.
- Webber clearly doesn’t belong in a group with players like Baylor, Bird, and Chamberlain.
For example, Brad Daugherty finished his career with averages of 19.0/9.5/3.7. Although he misses the cut in both points and assists, Daugherty is a much closer statistical match to Webber in these categories than Baylor and Chamberlain are.
Let’s look at this a different way. If we compare Webber’s top seven seasons (based on individual wins) to the top seven seasons of every other eligible player, here are his 10 most similar† players:
- Elvin Hayes
- Bailey Howell
- Sam Cassell
- Chet Walker
- Glen Rice
- Dan Issel
- Larry Nance
- Isiah Thomas
- Jack Sikma
- Wes Unseld
† Note that the word “similar” here does not refer to style of play. Rather, it is a reference to similarity in terms of overall value.
That’s not a bad list, with six Hall of Famers (Hayes, Howell, Walker, Issel, Thomas, and Unseld) and two more solid candidates (Nance and Sikma).
Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Webber’s Hall of Fame Standards score is 49, which puts him just a notch below what I would call the “extremely strong candidate” range. The average Hall of Famer scores 50 using this method, so if Webber was elected he would fall roughly in the middle of all Hall of Famers.
Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Yes, there is. Webber was plagued by injuries throughout his career. In his 15 years in the NBA, Webber played in just 831 out of a possible 1,198 regular season games. Or to put it another way, Webber sat out almost four and a half seasons worth of games over the course of his career. Because of this, Webber missed out on reaching career milestones such as 20,000 points and 10,000 rebounds.
Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
There is a good case to be made that Webber is the best eligible power forward who is not in the Hall of Fame, although I think it’s close between him and Larry Nance.
How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
Webber finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting for five straight seasons (1998–99 to 2002–03) but never won the award. His only top-five finish came in 2000–01, when he finished fourth.
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?
I define an “All-Star-type” season to be one in which a player records at least nine individual wins. Webber had seven such seasons, putting him in a group with other Hall of Famers such as Paul Arizin, Rick Barry, Walt Frazier, George Gervin, Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bob Lanier, Kevin McHale, Scottie Pippen, and Wes Unseld. That’s not bad company.
On the other hand, Webber was selected to five All-Star games, a good but not great total. There are quite a few players with five or more All-Star selections who have not made the Hall of Fame.
If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win an NBA title?
Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Webber was the best player on the 2001–02 Kings team that lost to the Lakers in seven games in the Western Conference finals. Had the Kings advanced to the NBA Finals, they would have been heavy favorites over the New Jersey Nets.
What impact did the player have on basketball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Was his college and/or international career especially noteworthy?
Webber was the leader of the University of Michigan’s “Fab Five”, believed by many to be the best recruiting class of all time. The “Fab Five” had a big impact on the court — Michigan advanced to consecutive NCAA championship games in Webber’s two seasons there — but thanks to their their baggy shorts, blacks socks, and black shoes they had an even greater impact on the game’s culture. Unfortunately for Webber, the Wolverines lost both of those championship games, with Webber infamously calling an illegal timeout with his team in possession of the ball and down by two in the 1993 title game.
The Verdict
I wrote about Webber’s Hall of Fame case a few years ago and came away feeling very unsure, which I took as a sign that I would pass on him if given a vote.
However, some comments made by Webber’s supporters motivated me to do some more research, and I now believe that Webber would be a solid choice for the Hall of Fame. I would vote for him.
