Thanksgiving Day Weather in Dallas-Fort Worth, 1985–2016: Frozen Turkey or Hot Apple Pie?
By Mark Wright
Introduction
Thanksgiving Day might be my favorite holiday. The appeal of Christmas and the importance of Easter are obvious. But Thanksgiving merits my №1 spot on the calendar. It is a day of reflection and thanks, plus it’s the entry way into an entire month of Christmas lights, carols and crazy shopping. The food is great and the weather isn’t very hot. So what’s not to like? I was born in Georgia, but my Texas-raised parents moved the family to Arlington, Texas, in the heart of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, in summer 1985. I recently performed a 32-year study of Halloween weather in North Texas, as weather is one of my strongest associations with my memories of holidays past. And those past weather conditions form my expectations of how certain holidays are supposed to look and feel. With Thanksgiving, I think of a cool afternoon and frosty evening. Now, there was one time in 1993 when it snowed on Thanksgiving. And I can’t help but think of that outlier of a day when I look ahead to Thanksgiving every year. But I temper my expectations to the following: As long as it’s cold enough to wear a sweatshirt in the afternoon, then I’m good.
Instead of relying on my memories of Thanksgiving weather, I decided to perform a study of the weather conditions at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport for Thanksgiving Day for the years 1985 to 2016 (a period of 32 years). I used a Google search to determine which day Thanksgiving fell on each year then used the website Weather Underground to find the high and low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit and precipitation in inches. I also looked for information about snowfall. For example, I found that a trace amount of snow fell in 2007. That certainly gibes with my memory of attending the Dallas Cowboys game that day. The crowd cheered when snow flurries began to trickle down during the first half of a 34–3 victory against the New York Jets. Oh, and I remember that I didn’t wear enough layers. The wind blew right through my jacket and long-sleeved Cowboys T-shirt. But enough of my anecdotes; what do the numbers tell us about Thanksgiving weather in DFW?
RESULTS
Extremes
Lowest Low: 26 (1993)
Lowest High: 35 (1993)
Highest Low: 66 (1991, 2015)
Highest High: 78 (2012)
Most rain: 2.71" (2015)
Most snow: 0.30" (1993)
Averages
Average High: 60.3
Average Low: 42.2
Average Precipitation: 0.14"
The Highs
Highs in the 70s: 10
Highs in the 60s: 7
Highs in the 50s: 10
Highs in the 40s: 3
Highs in the 30s: 2
The Lows
Lows in the 60s: 2
Lows in the 50s: 4
Lows in the 40s: 13
Lows in the 30s: 11
Lows in the 20s: 2
Jack Frost
Freezes: 5
Snow Days: 2
The Wet Stuff
During the period of this study, 13 days had at least a trace of rain or wintry precipitation. But wet weather doesn’t tend to rule the day. The only heavy precipitation came on Nov. 26, 2015, when 2.71 inches of rain fell on a warm, wet Thanksgiving Day. The Nov. 25, 1993, storm is recorded as 0.3 inches of snow. But any observer of the Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys game on that day will recall the weather as a significant sleet (or snow pellet) storm that impacted the outcome of the game. Cowboys defensive end Leon Lett blocked a field goal try. In the aftermath of his terriffic play, though, he accidentally slid across the icy Texas Stadium turf and touched the ball post-block, making it a live ball. Miami recovered and made the subsequent field goal try to win the game. What a shame. Lett’s reputation was tied to that play and a similar gaffe in Super Bowl 27. But the Cowboys went on to win their second straight Super Bowl in 1993–94. So, I guess the snow game wasn’t really that big of a disaster.
Trends
Average High in First 16 Years of Study: 55.9
Average High in the Final 16 Years of Study: 64.8
Average Low in First 16 Years of Study: 42.9
Average Low in the Final 16 Years of Study: 41.4
A Moveable Feast
Thanksgiving Day in the United States falls on the fourth Thursday in November. That means the feast that’s affectionately known as Turkey Day can be as early as Nov. 22 and as late as Nov. 28. Unlike Halloween or Christmas, comparing the weather conditions for Thanksgiving over time is somewhat troublesome because it is not an exact apples to apples comparison. But given that it is late November, the weather is starting to transition toward wintry. And sure enough, highs and lows averaged out to be on the cool side.
Discussion
Every holiday conjures certain images when it comes to the weather. We sweat on July Fourth, we might feel a slight chill on Halloween, but we’re generally mild. But what about Thanksgiving? As a kid, I seem to recall sweatshirt weather for the day time: That type of crisp fall air that doesn’t require a coat but demands at least long sleeves. And in the evening, when thoughts turn to leftovers or to turning on the Christmas lights for the first time, I recall needing that jacket before heading out into the dark late fall night. The results of this study confirm my preconceptions. Although some years were downright balmy (10 of 32 years made it into the 70s for highs), more than half (17 of 32) were sweatshirt weather days with highs ranging from 50 to 69.
The mercury never rose into the 80s on a Turkey Day in this study, nor did a high fail to at least nudge above freezing at some point in the 24-hour period. However, in 1993, the above-freezing portion of the day occurred before dawn before temperatures bottomed out into the upper 20s by mid-morning. Lows were reliably on the frigid side in this study: below 50 in 26 of 32 years (81%) and below 40 in 13 of 32 years (41%). Much like with the Halloween study, high temperatures are trending much warmer of late. Over the first half of the study (1985–2000), highs averaged in the mid-50s (55.9). But in the most recent 16 years (2001–2016), temperatures were a much milder 64.8. The same does not apply to the lows, which remained consistently in the low 40s on average in the first and second half of the study.
Conclusion
The late-autumn holiday of Thanksgiving symbolically ushers in the Christmas season in the United States. It falls around a month before Christmas Day and begins to display some winter-like weather tendencies. The 1993 sleet storm sticks in my mind as the Thanksgiving weather I remember most vividly. But I was under no illusion that icy weather was the norm for this late November holiday. Long-sleeved weather in the daytime is followed by winter coat weather by late evening, typically. It’s troubling to note that Thanksgiving is trending warmer in terms of a day-time high. But, interestingly, low temperatures remain on the cold side. Rain, humidity, and prevailing winds obviously affect the weather, but the day-time highs were significantly warmer in the second half of this study, meaning the extremes between daytime highs and nighttime lows became more pronounced in the latter half of the study. Still, Turkey Day is reliably cool and, as is the case in the late autumn, rather unsettled. It can sleet or snow or pour down rain — or it can be almost 80 degrees. The extreme heat of summer and early fall are gone. And thus Dallas-Fort Worth denizens are free to cheer on the Cowboys or start their Christmas shopping in relative comfort most years.
Thanksgiving Day Weather in DFW, 1985–2016 (High in degrees Fahrenheit, Low in degrees Fahrenheit, precipitation in inches)
Nov 28 1985: 41, 30, no precip
Nov 27 1986: 51, 35, no precip
Nov 26 1987: 52, 46, no precip
Nov 24 1988: 73, 45, no precip
Nov 23 1989: 52, 30, no precip
Nov 22 1990: 64, 54, 0.36"
Nov 28 1991: 77, 66, no precip
Nov 26 1992: 39, 35, no precip
Nov 25 1993: 35, 26, 0.30" (Snow)
Nov 24 1994: 50, 44, 0.02"
Nov 23 1995: 64, 46, 0.61"
Nov 28 1996: 46, 34, 0.05"
Nov 27 1997: 75, 57, no precip
Nov 26 1998: 73, 46, no precip
Nov 25 1999: 57, 42, 0.01"
Nov 23 2000: 55, 51, 0.32"
Nov 22 2001: 71, 43, no precip
Nov 28 2002: 57, 30, no precip
Nov 27 2003: 60, 44, 0.01"
Nov 25 2004: 62, 35, no precip
Nov 24 2005: 67, 41, no precip
Nov 23 2006: 77, 43, no precip
Nov 22 2007: 47, 38, 0.01" (Trace of snow)
Nov 27 2008: 69, 43, 0.00" (Trace)
Nov 26 2009: 62, 39, no precip
Nov 25 2010: 74, 36, 0.01"
Nov 24 2011: 58, 42, no precip
Nov 22 2012: 78, 53, 0.00" (Trace)
Nov 28 2013: 52, 29, no precip
Nov 27 2014: 57, 36, no precip
Nov 26 2015: 72, 66, 2.71"
Nov 24 2016: 73, 44, no precip
