2019 Best Picture Breakdown
Who has the upper hand in the race for Best Picture?
A STAR IS BORN
Pros: Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood! And yes, A Star Is Born isn’t exactly about the town itself, or the industry that runs it, but it is a timeless story about the highs and lows of celebrity mythmaking. However, the best case for the musical drama might just be the numbers.
A Star Is Born is the only movie to be recognized at every Hollywood Guild ceremony, showcasing its admiration across a wide range of voters. I’ve also heard the theory that it’s especially a favorite among actors, who make up the largest body of voters in the Academy.
Con: As of this moment, A Star Is Born hasn’t had any major award wins outside those for its music or Gaga’s performance. Anything could happen in the coming weeks but, for now, at least, the film may not exactly be a juggernaut.
What a Win Says: The taste within the Academy hasn’t changed much over the years but, for the first time in a while, the Best Picture winner is a huge hit and the Academy won’t risk looking out of touch.
BLACKKKLANSMAN
Pros: Remember when Martin Scorsese had one masterpiece after another (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas) glossed over on award’s night? He finally won for The Departed in 2007, signaling some long overdue recognition for one of America’s greatest filmmakers. Of course, the knock against The Departed was it was B+ Scorsese; well made and entertaining for sure, but nothing compared to his best work. It wasn’t so much the film that had one as Scorsese's legacy. The Academy was righting a past wrong.
That same theory is there for Blackkklansman. In comparison to Spike Lee’s masterpieces like Do the Right Thing, Malcolm X, or (in my opinion) The 25th Hour, it holds no candle. However, it’s by far the most satisfying and entertaining movie he’s made in years, as well as one hell-bent on saying something about our political moment.
Con: No major award wins thus far. Again, anything could happen. I also have a feeling if Lee does get a legacy prize, it will be in the Director category, not Best Picture.
What a Win Says: A great filmmaker is getting his long-overdue recognition, for a politically outspoken movie in turbulent times.
BLACK PANTHER
Pro: No other movie from 2018 was a phenomenon in the way this one was. It’s not every year we get a smart, well-made piece of pop-entertainment, featuring big ideas and real vision. In a year where the Oscars seem desperate to catch the attention of average moviegoers, a movie like Black Panther seems like a gift from God.
Con: My hunch is there’s still snobbery in the Academy regarding superhero movies. Don’t be surprised if there’s an anonymous voter piece from the Hollywood Reporter stating, “It’s a great comic-book movie, but is it a great movie?”
What a Win Says: The constraints of what does and doesn’t constitute a Best Picture come down. If a smart, well made comic-book movie can win big, why can’t a horror film, a comedy, an animated movie? I like this scenario the best!
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Pros: It’s a giant hit! Maybe more than people realize.
Cons: Aside from the movie being quite bad?
Ok, I’ll try being a bit objective here.
After it’s Golden Globe win for Outstanding Drama, many took to social media to decry the decision in light of the allegations against director *Bryan Singer. Other issues included reports surrounding the film’s factual-inaccuracy of Queen history, and what many have seen as an attempt to gloss over Freddie Mercury’s homosexuality.
*Singer was not in attendance, and likely won’t be on Oscar night, but his name remains credited, despite being fired late in production. *
What a Wins Says: The Academy has poor taste? Do people just love Queen? Considering the pile of allegations against director Bryan Singer, a win here would likely spell trouble for Hollywood in light or the #MeToo movement. Expect a series of defeated pieces about how nothing ever changes.
THE FAVOURITE
Pros: Another film that seems to have a lot of admiration among actors, plus it’s managed to become one of the most successful arthouse pictures of last year.
Cons: The performances appear to be garnering more buzz than the movie itself.
What a Win Says: Director Yorgos Lanthimos will likely have more cache for his next project, while Fox Searchlight further establishes itself as a powerful force when it comes to award campaigning. They were behind last year’s The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, both of which took home multiple Oscars.
GREEN BOOK
Pros: Based on a true story? Check! Two charismatic leads in likable performances? Check! A feel-good story that’s also about overcoming racism in America? Check!
On a more interesting note, Green Book was picked Best Picture by the Producer’s Guild, who have predicted 8 out of the last 10 Best Picture winners at the Oscars.
Cons: Ooof, where to begin?
There’s of course…
- The controversy over the depiction of pianist Dr. Donald Shirley.
- Questionable tweets from writer Nick Vallelonga
- Behavior from Director Peter Farley on the sets of prior films
But, the disdain toward Green Book seems more directed toward how the movie frames its themes. Along with Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s become the villain of the awards race, with its biggest critics sneering at it as an issue-driven movie about race through the eyes of a white protagonist, something that would have been Oscar catnip in 1989 but now feels outdated. Whether that sentiment is shared within the Academy is yet to be seen.
What a Win Says: The Moonlight moment a couple years back was a rarity, and the Academy hasn’t changed its thinking.
ROMA
Pros: This year’s critics pick. Nearly everyone I’ve talked to has called it a masterpiece, or, at the very least, a technical achievement. And while Netflix has not released any official numbers, it’s safe to say lots of people have seen Roma, due to its accessibility on the streaming service as well as in theaters.
Cons: While critics have adored the picture, Hollywood is another animal. And, while Cuaron is a respected auteur in the industry, Netflix is seen by many as the destroyer of worlds.
Ok, that’s a bit harsh, I’m certainly not applying I agree with that statement, but there are certainly those in Hollywood who view the streaming giant as a threat to the theatrical experience and the traditional model for releasing movies.
What a Win Says: Expect a LOT of talk about Netflix should this happen. The company is continuing to ramp up its original content but a win for Roma will likely signify a bigger draw for talent looking to make their passion projects without worrying about box-office numbers.
VICE
Pros/Cons: Not since mid-90s Oliver Stone has a major motion picture been THIS savagely political. For better and for worse, Adam McKay’s…biopic?…Satire?…Let’s say his portrait of Dick Cheney, is one that’s avidly trying to get under your skin. But, while the ballsiness of McKay’s vision is quite impressive (I think), it has led to divisive opinions. Those that like it, LOVE it, while those that don’t. HATE it. That split makes a Best Picture win seem rather unlikely.
The stylistic choices that could be in its favor may also tarnish it in the minds of other voters.
What a Win Says: Politically aggressive times call for politically aggressive movies.
