I found the simplest way to explain this to people is not with math. Instead build a working model on the computer that is just simple colored dots on a grid representing individual cases. Essentially a modification of John Conway’s “game of life” cellular automata. You can explain the rules in less than five minutes, you can get people to agree on the rules, and you can change the parameters easily. And you push a button and a totally unbiased computer plays out the game as many times as you wish. This is been used by economist to show segregation patterns, trends and other things.