Andrés Manuel López Obrador: a story teller or a real leader?
By Joel Salazar (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Energy policy in Mexico Is a key topic. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -also known as AMLO- the president of Mexico, is a leader with a deep social thinking, but with a wide social acting too, in all his life, not just now that he is the top politician in Mexico. Because of this, many investors are afraid about the risks for private sector, and the possibilities of communist policies implementation in Mexico.
If we want to detect opportunities (and its risks), for investing in Mexico, we cannot just talk about energy policy; we need to look around the AMLO´s walking to the Mexican Presidency, for starting “The 4th transformation” a brand new welfare state model, created by him (going beyond than Jürgen Habermas thinking), so, in this document, I share with you, an outlook of Mexico today, based in data (describing), in facts, and giving wider and rational elements, for analyze, and for decide, about investing in Mexico.
AMLO’s Governing way, breaks with all past models, it is special, and different. We know that in the last 36 years, PAN and PRI (2 of the biggest Mexican politic parties, I refer those here, paragraphs forward), used the same model, a neoliberal one. AMLO´s model, breaks with those totally.
We have a special case here, so, we cannot apply old assumptions, nor normal “formulas and methods” for analyze this “new” Mexico, neither for risks detection, because we cannot measure, calculate, neither understand, this new Mexico’s being, just watching an electron of this new molecule, neither, making a zoom, just in a part of this new “all”.
Using old insights and a “traditional” thinking way, last year, I calculated, and predicted -between friends and colleagues- that many labor unions, belonging to the PRI and to the PAN, and to the most powerful spheres in Mexico, would create violence against new government, and against its policies, in all the country, not just in the Mexico city. I meant: millions of workers affiliated to those collectives, protesting against AMLO´s government, and acting with violence in all the cities in Mexico country, trying to avoid that he takes protest, as the new Mexican president. In my model, all this power factors, never would let to AMLO governs. All of them, would keep on the same, till achieve AMLO´s dismission to the presidency… more than 90% of my friends and colleagues in the table, were agree with me, and some of them, even had worst predictions than mine….never happened any.
In a conference with business administration students, I estimated that there were high probabilities about the opposition, would not permit to AMLO governs Mexico, so, I predicted the USA dollar, would go around $23.00 Mexican pesos, because a lak of creditability in the Mexican government, and as a strategic movement for creating a bad image about AMLO´s governability. Never happened any.
Initially, I just had 500 words for talk about it, but, as you can see, is not enough, so, I added more needed content and context, waiting for your approval to it, and you continue reading.
What has happened in Mexico, is:
During AMLO’s presidential period, Mexican peso, stays strong, specially, considering the storms created because of Chile and Bolivia public power disputes, and because of China-USA commercial fight.
Day to day, the most of the “opposition” labor unions (the real ones, the ones with weight and power), and the spheres of power, are learning how to adapt to the new govern way, going in the same way, step by step, but in the same way that AMLO´s Policy; Carlos Slim, one of the most important investors in the world, was attacking to AMLO during his electoral campaign, but now, he started making projects with federal government, and has declared that he trusts in Mexican govern policy, so, he will invest more in Mexico. Slim was one of the biggest investors in the Texcoco’s airport project, cancelled by AMLO instructions (because of ecological and financial issues), and was involved too, in the harmful contracts, cancelled by Federal Electricity Commission. Those facts give us a good sign about good Mexican govern policies, and obviously, about AMLO´s accountability.
We need to know the past for understanding the present, so, we must have very clear that the PRI (Revolutionary Institutional Party) was the most powerful political party in Mexico, since 1929, that was founded, till 2000, that its candidate lost the Mexican Presidency for 1st time in its history, and lost the majority in the Congress too. AMLO was a militant in the PRI, till 1987, that he joined to the “Democratic Current” an internal movement against the old rules for the designation of candidates for the presidency, and governors, on this party; all the chosen, were “point fingered” by the Mexican President -this was a political institution, named “El dedazo”- One year later, this internal movement, became the PRD (Democratic Revolution Party). We must let it clear, that the PRI is identified as a left Party, so, the PRD is a left party too, an ultra-left one. Analyzing what those politic parties achieved, we can say that both belong to the right, but this is topic for another document, just keep it in mind. All this reflects that AMLO was against the “Plutocracy” 32 years ago, not just now. A trial of lawlessness was promoted against him, for the first Mexican President extracted from the PAN (National Action Party -belongs to the right-), who won the elections in 2000: Vicente Fox Quezada, but AMLO’S social power, saved him to being condemned, so, he was able for contending for the Mexican presidency as PRD’s candidate. The official results, declared that AMLO lost the election in 2006; his followers reclaimed to making a recount “vote by vote, box by box”, there were more than 1 million people in the “zocalo” square, in Mexico City; AMLO could started the violence, fighting for the presidency, arguing fraud in the election, but he did not. On those days, he declared that the most important, was the Mexicans welfare, so, he asked to all his followers keep in calm. Later, he founded MORENA politic party, and whit it, he won the election that seats him in the Mexican Presidency actually.
The PRI was constructed with many bad practices, the same done the PAN. Both created the highest corruption and pillage levels in Mexico’s history, even more that in the Spain colonization age (1521–1821). This is the point; corruption implies high risks, but it is decreasing in Mexico now, because of the 4th transformation of Mexico, created and leaded by AMLO (1st Transformation: Independence of Mexico from Spain 1810–1821; 2nd Transformation: the Reform War 1850–1857; 3rd Transformation: Mexican Revolution 1910–1917; and, 4th Transformation: The welfare state, started by AMLO, and its policy, just on December 1st 2018). I am making emphasis in this 4th transformation, created by AMLO, as his own conception, a state theory one, I mean, it is something deep, ideological, not just political fashion; 4th transformation is a changing game factor, that obliges me to share it with you, trying to make your sight wider, so you can decide if added it into your risks analysis.
This is one of the official Mexican Government logos. From left to right: Morelos and Hidalgo (1st Transformation, Juarez 2nd, Madero 3rd, Cardenas, closing the 3d with his very important energy policy. (Is AMLO’s subconscious looking for appear there? I mean, become a Mexican Hero?)
In this point, we have the big picture, kind reader, so, now we can make a zoom onto the energy sector in Mexico:
PEMEX, the Mexican state-owned petroleum company, was created in 1938 by Lazaro Cardenas, Military General, and Mexican President (one of the most loved by Mexican people). Since this fact, the petroleum, has being strategic and a very important component in the Mexican economy.
In the 70’s and 80’s of the last century, and in the first decade of this one, petroleum prices in the market, got high prices, and generated highest incomes for Mexican government, but this “plus” was not reflected in population’s amelioration, or by the less, not in proportional terms.
As we can see, PEMEX represents great importance for Mexican policy, and represents political and economic power for his labor union leader too (haves more than 113,000 unionized workers). Carlos Antonio Romero Deschamps, who was the leader, from1993, to October 16th, 2019, day that he resigned to its charge (Mexican authorities against crime, are integrating cases versus him), was not stigmatized, neither touched by AMLO. I think, this talks about AMLO’s political neatness; All the Mexican people know about the political power and the corruption of Romero, as know about the damage he made to PEMEX, and to Mexicans, allied with the highest political Mexican sphere. AMLO’s moral force, and his strategy for cleaning Mexican government of corruption, made that Romero resigned, and increased AMLO´s governability.
The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), the Mexican state-owned electricity company, created in 1938 (for Lazaro Cardenas too), in this govern administration, detected harmful contracts, and payments, so, made renegotiations with all the contractors, including foreign, and national investors (Carlos Slim was here).
The head of the Mexican Energy Secretariat, Rocío Nahle, is graduated as chemist, specialized in petrochemicals, was working in PEMEX, in different areas years ago, so, she knows PEMEX’s issues, from inside, and from time ago. She has participated as deputy (for MORENA) too, in the Mexican congress, in energy matters, so, she haves the political pulse about it too. In less than a year, PEMEX, and Mexican government, has reduced the oil theft (known as huachicoleo in Spanish), from an average of 60,000 barrels daily, to 4,500. This not just represents huge saves for PEMEX, it represents too, results in this game changing headed by AMLO.
Gasolines and diesel were increasing its prices during Peña Nieto period, the last Mexican president; with AMLO, fuel prices, are getting steady, and lower in some regions, because of complementary policies for causing a free, but controlled fuel market.
Energy secretariat is promoting development in hydrocarbons, electricity, and alternative energy, not just on the first ones.
The national development plan, in energy matters, is oriented to: form people in energy matters, research and development, new financial schemas in the sector, technology exchange, etc., so, it is looking for Mexico’s self-sufficiency in energy maters.
From Monday to Friday, AMLO offers a “Press conference” in the mornings, most of the times, in the National Palace facilities. He talks about government plans and programs, brand new, and tracking the old ones, he talks about the why, the who, the when… he also answers press questions about any topic they treat to him. May be, this is the better source for analyzing AMLO’s policies, and his reasons. What I want to share with you dear reader, is that he sounds coherent, well informed about all around every topic. Normally, he does not uses papers with information, nor audio pointer, neither teleprompter… Handling this information volumes, traveling around all the country for watching real stages in every region, writing plans, talking with the most unkowned people, the same that talking with Nobel prizes… Do you know another president in the world that makes the same? I do not, so, this is why I wrote this document with 1956 words, the year AMLO was born.
We can keep incorporating many more data here, but I consider (and hope you coincide with me) that with all the past content, we can answer the question:
AMLO’s energy policy, is being dictate by his own nationalistic vision, urging for short term growth, tending to generate Mexicans welfare, and a new nation stage: the 4th transformation.