The Real Problem with AVs is Secrecy.
It takes collaboration and openness to solve real problems: secrecy leads to dead ends. Unless these AI companies begin to share their scenarios and the technology for dealing with each scenario among themselves and all of us, AVs are dead on the roads. How many scenarios can each AV deal with? We have no clue about the basic answer to this question. We live in an authoritarian state where the AI companies, Waymo, Argo, Cruise, GM, Uber, Aptiva, etc., etc. are all hiding their problems and accomplishments from each other and from us. Authoritarian Russia failed to exploit computers and look where that left them. Yes, miles without a hitch are a good indicator as CA has demanded, but we need to know much more: how many patterns does it recognize? what scenarios can it handle? What does it fail at? How many patterns (objects, events, etc.) does a good driver recognize? How far are we from that? What are the bottlenecks to getting there? This must all be public knowledge. If it takes a Manhattan — type project to get us this info, then it is time we acted. The main actors will never get together until they are forced to do so, and only government, all of us, can force them to do it. The opportunity is enormous: the responsibility weighs heavily on us.