The Dog That Caught The Car
The last month’s been an interesting time.
· Supreme Court says Trump can do what he wants
· Presidential Debate
· Dems turn on Biden
· Shooting attempt on Trump
· GOP convention
· Media calls Trump ‘Man of Destiny’ & starts to call election for him
· Biden gets Covid
· Biden steps aside for Harris
· Harris receives immediate and enthusiastic support
And that was all inside of a month. 2020 levels of news intensity.
Just to recap what I wrote in April: Trump / GOP may not win because
· Trump’s a figurehead and advocate for a transnational crime network but
· His campaign is cash-strapped
· The novelty has worn off
· His base is aging out
· ‘Roevember’ — women are angry
· Trump is in poor health
That said,
· Trump’s cult will do anything for him
· The press has learned nothing
· Trump’s cult will do anything he demands, they’ve proved this before.
· Democrats will shoot themselves in the feet; it’s what they do
· Expect a second insurrection / coup attempt; it’s their brand
· Trumpism may triumph without Trump
And now there’s a wave of optimism, of enthusiasm as Biden’s stepped aside for Harris. How does this play out?
Demographically, the people who want Trump / GOP to rule forever are largely male and white. It’s an alliance between crooks who couldn’t care about idealism and a far-right Christian nationalist base that isn’t entirely aware they’re being used.
It’s possible that the top and bottom have been a bit high on their own supply, their own media ecosystem. (Remember the ‘Red Tsunami’ that didn’t happen?) Opponents did not see Harris as a contender, don’t understand or identify with her.
And frankly, in the last four years she’s not been hugely inspiring. As the first female Veep, her aim was to normalize a woman of color in her role, prove she was fit for the job. It seems that the Dems did not see Harris as a motivating presence either. (i.e., if a personality like Obama had been in the VP slot, he’s a very charismatic guy. Would have been tipped for the Presidency for sure.)
Different person. But the response has been undeniable. Democrats are now a bit like the dog that chased and caught the car. They rarely make bold moves — this is the party that is afraid of the House Parliamentarian. “Oh wait we’re riding a massive wave? Quick, how can we shoot ourselves in the foot?’
Republicans were expecting a ‘Dems in Disarray’ scenario, and so were the Dems. In USA politics, it’s better to think of Presidential elections as a battle between two elite factions that are there to maintain elite power. They may dislike each other but they’ll close ranks to protect their own. That’s why when demonstrators assembled at the homes of the Supreme Court, security was immediately strengthened with bipartisan support. And why Biden paused his campaign briefly after Trump’s near miss.
I’m going to talk for a bit now about political violence, which I want to make extremely clear I don’t advocate for.
In the 2021 Capitol Riot, if one of the Senators had been killed, that would have halted the voting for days. That was the kind of outcome that Trump appears to have been hoping for: not only interrupt the vote, but make it contentious enough that it could be thrown to the Supreme Court (with three Trump Judges on it.)
Trump’s campaign is (right now) preparing for a contested election. It’s what they did in 2016 and 2020.
But it looks like Harris has galvanized voters of color, women, Dems in general. Youth remain a tough sell due to the ongoing and horrific Gaza war.
Harris’ campaign is already using a spin against the Republicans that I love to see: ‘These people are weird.’ Their racism and sexism is super self-evident, and younger voters really respond to this.
If Harris receives the support she seems to have, the only option left for the GOP is some form of violence. Specifically, targeted violence that affects the smooth functioning of the election, and throws it to friendly referees.
This is Trump’s specialty. He’s OK with going to court on a regular basis. He relishes it because it always works out well for him. If you want to horrify yourself, go look at the Wikipedia listing for ‘Ongoing Trump Court Cases’.
I could be wrong, but violence combined with ratfuckery seems to be the GOP’s play with a big Harris bump evident. These folks are not super original.
· Enrage the base so that disaffected loners take aim at Harris.
· Slates of false electors that GOP Senators endorse
· Local pro-Trump election officials refuse to certify
· Harassment of voters
· GOP senators become unhinged during vote certification
It would be lovely to see the GOP go down in flames, ‘Red Tsunami’ redux. But Harris is no prize. And let’s keep in mind the existing through-lines we’ve seen so far. “The purpose of a system is what it does.”
· Courts always mysteriously find in Trump’s favor.
· Democrats consistently give ground to the GOP, as if they were ‘controlled opposition’.
The future is unwritten, trends certainly exist though. My money’s on the GOP acting out.
