I Support Rep. Keith Ellison for DNC Chair, But I Know He Will Lose
To be clear I want Keith Ellison to become DNC chair. I think he would take the Democrats in the direction they need to go in order to effectively counter Trump and the Republicans going forward.
This election has shown that Americans want to topple the current system in which the wealthy buy up politicians and have them make policies that favor their bottom-line, at the expense of ordinary Americans. Of course, the Americans who voted for Trump were wrong to think he is the guy to do that, but it is a fact that many of his voters voted for him because they saw him as the best person (at least given the choice between him and Sec. Clinton) to topple that system.
But will Rep. Ellison win? I think, No.
First, the establishment of the Democratic party has already started smearing him as anti-Israel and anti-Semitic. Of course, no evidence shows that. People can criticize American policy toward Israel without being anti-Israel or anti-Semitic. Jewish-American advocacy groups have stood up vehemently to shield Rep. Ellison from such preposterous charges. Besides, during the Dem. primaries, Rep. Ellison supported Bernie Sanders, the most successful Jewish-American candidate in the history of the US.
But the smear is really a small part of why Rep. Ellison will lose.
The main reason he will lose is that it is in the economic interest of Democratic donors for the division in the Democratic party to continue indefinitely. That means they will go all-in against Ellison, and, yes, they will win.
The Democratic donor-class will not go all-in against Ellison DESPITE knowing that Ellison losing will bring the party to the brink of destruction, because the progressives in the party, who are now the most powerful group in that party as far as party faithfuls are concerned, will not take it lying down. They will go all-in BECAUSE they know that such fission will be the consequence.
You may ask, why would the Democratic donor-class want to destroy their own party?
The answer is simple, it is in their own economic interest to do so. There are two donor-classes in the US: the one supporting the Democrats and the one supporting the Republicans. The only difference between those donor-classes is that the Democrat-backing class is socially and culturally liberal, and the Republican-backing class is mostly (with only a few exceptions) socially and culturally conservative.
Both groups, however, share economic interests, which means that the Democratic donor-class would be enriched by the policies the Republican party pursues, just as much as the Republican donor-class will. Both groups want to remain extremely wealthy, otherwise, why do they become politically active?
Now, if this analysis is correct — and I think it is — it becomes clear why the Democratic donor-class will never allow the progressives in the Democratic party to win. If progressives win the Democratic donor-class lose political power, and they could then be forced to ally with people whose social views they find repugnant.
However, the consequence of not letting progressives win, for the Democratic donor-class, is tantalizing. The more the Democrats in-fight, the less able they are to mobilize to take the fight to the republicans; the less able they are to mobilize, the more able Republicans are to pass their agenda. This means that at the end, the economic interests of the Democratic donor-class is served by Democratic in-fighting.
That is why they will go all-in against Rep Keith Ellison, and they will win because it is not party-faithfuls that vote in the DNC chair election. The DNC members that vote are more susceptible to the allure of money than party members are. So the money will win.