John Culver

Successful gamblers — and successful forecasters of any kind — do not think of the future in terms of no-lose bets, unimpeachable theories, and infinitely precise measures. These are the illusions of the sucker, the sirens of his overconfidence. Successful gamblers, instead, think of the future as speckles of probability, flickering upward and downward like a stock market ticker to every new jolt of information. When their estimates of these probabilities diverge by a sufficient margin from what the odds on offer, they may place a bet.

— Nate Silver

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Successful gamblers — and successful forecasters of any kind — do not think of the future in terms of no-lose bets, unimpeachable theories, and infinitely precise measures. These are the illusions of the sucker, the sirens of his overconfidence. Successful gamblers, instead, think of the future as speckles of probability, flickering upward and downward like a stock market ticker to every new jolt of information. When their estimates of these probabilities diverge by a sufficient margin from what the odds on offer, they may place a bet.

— Nate Silver

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John Culver

John Culver

Co-founder & CEO Fanvest Wagering Exchange, Inc. Founder & Editor The Intelligent Sports Wagerer (The ISW.).