On Gambling with Jeopardy
Anyone who knows me knows that I’m a big trivia fan. I do bar trivia weekly, I did scholastic bowl in high school, and I watch Jeopardy quite regularly. So, as you can imagine, I take this trivia stuff far more seriously than I realistically should (note that the word “trivia” is derived from the plural form of “trivialities” — meaning insignificant). But someone on Jeopardy just cost themselves several thousand dollars with poor betting and I’m very frustrated with it.
Let’s set the scene. We have 5 questions left in Double Jeopardy. These are the remaining questions and categories. Burt, a PhD candidate from Connecticut and the reigning champion, is just barely out of the lead, but in control of the board. Alex Trebek has just let the players know that they have a minute left before the second round end.
If you’re Burt, you want to get into the lead. Having the lead entering Final Jeopardy is a huge advantage — you are in control of your own destiny in that no matter how much anyone else bets, so long as you bet enough and you get the question right, you can assure yourself the win.
Naturally, Burt, wanting to move into the lead over Rick, goes for the $1600 question — and ding ding ding! It’s the daily double!
Let’s talk about what Burt can do here. Burt can bet up to his current total cash amount in a Daily Double: $10,600. So he can bet any amount less than that total. What does Burt do? He bets $1000. BURT WHAT ARE YOU DOING
Burt is in a position to guarantee himself the lead going into Final Jeopardy — to have that huge advantage! But Burt — a Jeopardy champion! — decides to bet against himself inexplicably by betting to tie the current leader. Let’s pretend here that nobody gets any more questions correct after Burt answers this double Jeopardy round and we end with the following scores:
BURT: $11,600 | IAN: $9,600 | RICK: $11,600
If Burt and Rick enter Final Jeopardy tied, if either of them bet it all and get the question right, the most either could guarantee is a tie, not an outright win. If Burt bets a single dollar more, the scores entering final look like:
BURT: $11,601 | IAN: $9,600 | RICK: $11,600
Now, Burt can guarantee himself the win if he bets it all and gets it right. He’s also minimized his risk, so if he gets it wrong, he’s only $2001 dollars out of first place. But that risk is essentially the same if he bets $1000 instead of $1001, without the added benefit of being able to guarantee yourself a win — so even if nobody can answer more questions after the fact.
But Alex Trebek has only just announced there’s a minute remaining. There is still plenty of time to answer at least some of the remaining questions. So in betting to tie, Burt is putting himself at the mercy of the buzzers. If you’re extremely confident in your toss-up ability, maybe that’s a good thing, but it’s usually far more of a tossup.
It’s an especially bad move when Burt could have easily guaranteed himself the win right then and there: if Burt bets $3,401, there is not enough money left on the board for Rick to run the table and get back in the lead. There is literally nothing Rick could do to get back in the lead, and Burt is in control of his own destiny.
Burt could play it safe! Burt could bet $1, count on Rick to get Final Jeopardy wrong, and cruise to victory. But he’s relying on someone else’s failure instead of making his own success.
How did this end? Burt bet $1000, got the Double Jeopardy question right, and then Rick picked up two more questions off the board before time was up — so Burt entered Final Jeopardy even further behind than he was before the last question. Burt bet everything in Final Jeopardy and got the question right, but Rick was able to bet Burt’s total plus one dollar — and so Rick went home the winner that night. Rick cost himself the game at that exact moment, all thanks to poor betting.
