Peak smartphone? Yeah, so what.

There are few gadgets in the history of gadgetry that captured and held the attention of mainstream consumers quite like smartphones. It is almost 10 years since Apple debuted the original iPhone and now smartphones are ubiquitous to the point where everyone seems to be asking “are we are ‘peak smartphone’?”

The answer is probably yes. Yes because the numbers paint a picture of market saturation and declining shipments, and because both hardware and software upgrades are now evolutionary iterations rather than revolutionary redesigns. Most companies have settled on a form factor of anywhere between 4.6" to 5.5", running iOS or varied colours of Android. Every now and again you might bump into someone using a Windows Phone but they are in the minority. Apple and Google’s efforts to innovate their respective OSs and keep interest high in their ecosystems appear to be running out of steam — there is just so much one can do with a phone. The jump between generations of devices and OSs is now a very small step.

So where to next? Does something come along to kill off one of the most pervasive pieces of personal technology ever created? Or can one of the giants (or a startup for that matter) change the whole market and once again pique the interest of experts and consumers alike?

Sci-fi hardware design…

Before phone sizes went big, they were getting smaller and smaller. Surely the next big jump is a radical reinvention of design. Forget curved screens, go for fully foldable screens. Imagine carrying around your iPad Pro in your top pocket and being able to choose your screen size on the go.

… Or unbundle the smartphone functionality

The current form factor works because it is portable, a suitable size to enjoy most types of content, connects anywhere you have a signal, can easily be turned off (does anyone still do that?) and is also relatively private. It is the one size fits all device.

We have already seen OEMs such as HTC, Microsoft, Samsung and LG talk about moving into device ecosystems, with VR headsets, new cameras and other peripherals but everything remains literally or metaphorically tethered to smartphone use.

The challenge is to create a device that improves on the smartphone’s ability to deliver the three Cs: communication, consumption and creation.

Wearables have the potential to reduce smartphone use, but not in current form or with current use cases. These need to be wearables that people can put on and forget unless they are using them. Right now there is too much friction in their use to replace smartphones. No surprise then that FitBit has the most popular wearable as it just sits on your wrist for days at a time. Even so ‘stickiness' — the duration of product use — is still low.

Virtual reality is good for gaming but you can’t walk around strapped into a headset all day (or at least you shouldn’t) so it alone won’t replace a smartphone.

The Google Glass-like idea of augmented reality headsets will surely eventually become mainstream once practical issues are resolved, at least before wearable technology is surpassed by implants.

Peak smartphone, but who cares?

So there is nothing on the horizon to either challenge or reinvigorate smartphones. Is this a problem? Not really unless you have shares in Apple or Samsung. The rise of low cost flagships from OEMs such as Huawei is a good thing for the average consumer who needs a good phone but doesn’t really need to spend a month’s salary on it.

So just enjoy the fact that you can cram a supercomputer into your pocket for just a couple of hundred dollars. Smartphones aren’t going anywhere just yet.