NBA Over/Unders: West Coast Best Coast

Today we’ll take a look at the Western Conference, and try to sort out who will meet expectations, and who won’t.

Northwest

Utah Jazz: 47.5

No really guys, this time they’ll make the leap and get in the playoffs. For real! They had horrible injury luck last year, to the point of starting Shelvin Mack at point guard. Favors and Gobert both missed significant time. In addition to Exum being healthy, the Jazz acquired George Hill who is more than a competent point guard, and will be a great fit. A finger injury will keep Hayward out 4–6 weeks, but Joe Johnson will be able to keep them afloat on the wing until mid-November, when he is slated to return. The Jazz won’t be exciting, but they have a 2004 Pistions-esque feel about them.

Pick: Over, 52 wins

Oklahoma City Thunder: 45.5

Clearly, Durant’s departure drastically alters the franchise’s outlook, and their over/under line reflects that. The Thunder now have a wing dearth that makes them one of the bottom 5 in the league at the position. They swapped Ibaka for Victor Oladipo, but he isn’t quite big enough to cover small forwards. It will be interesting to see how Billy Donovan handles the big man rotation, with Kanter, Adams, Ilyasova, and even Mitch McGary, as well as rookie Domantas Sabonis. Ilyasova figures to get a lot minutes at power forward because of how desperately the team needs shooting. This creates somewhat of a problem at center, because Kanter, despite some improvement, is still one of the worst big men in the league defensively, and can’t be trusted without Steven Adams out there. Putting all three out there would force Ilyasova to the wing, who can’t keep up defensively at this point in his career. The lack of shooting between the Kanter and Adams requires a shooter be out there with them, but Anothony Morrow’s defense is so bad that he has trouble getting minutes despite being a career 45% shooter from deep. Whatever happens, Billy Donovan will be put to the test this year.

Pick: Under, 45

Portland Trail Blazers: 46.5

The Blazers were probably the league’s biggest surprise last year, managing to win 44 games despite losing four out of five starters in free agency. Terry Stotts did a masterful job riding the backcourt of Lillard and McCollum to the second round of the Western Conference playoffs. GM Neil Olshey inked Evan Turner to an eye popping 4 year, $70 million dollar deal this offseason, and also added Festus Ezeli. Turner probably isn’t worth the contract he signed, but that doesn’t really matter in terms of wins this season. The Blazers had a defensive rating of 108.0 placing them 20th in the league, per Basketball Reference. While Ezeli should help give them some rim protection, he will need to stay on the court to do so. He’s already requiring injections in his knees, which does not bode well for the season to come. Thus we probably won’t see much improvement out of the defense. Overall, the Blazers should be about the same as they were last season, maybe taking a small step back.

Pick: Under, 43

Minnesota Timberwolves: 41.5

This seems like a pretty aggressive line for a team whose best player is entering his second year in the league, but Karl-Anthony Towns really is that good. Barring a sophomore slump, Towns should be in the conversation for the All Star team, and perhaps a top 15 player in the league (though that seems a bit of a stretch). The Wolves took Kris Dunn with the fifth overall pick in the draft, mercifully ending the Zach LaVine at backup point guard experiment. If Wiggins can improve his three point shooting (30.4% on his career), Rubio can stay on the court, LaVine plays within himself, and Towns continues to meet expectations I could see them getting to 41 or more wins, but that’s a lot of ifs.

Pick: Under, 39

Denver Nuggets: 34.5

The Nuggets finished last year with just 33 wins. Wilson Chandler missed the whole season, Gallinari also missed significant time, and Mudiay was one of the worst players in basketball when he was on the court according to the metrics. Chandler has always been underrated, and his presence should help the offense immensely. Mudiay should be better than last year since it will be hard for him not to. Their young and entertaining combo of Eastern European big men Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic shows some real promise. Jamal Murray looks like a promising scorer in the league, but is little small for an off guard (6'4"), and not quick enough to keep up with point guards. Look for the Nuggets backcourt defense to be atrocious when he and Mudiay play together (which should be a lot).

Pick: Over, 36

Pacific

Golden State Warriors: 66.5

The Warriors supposedly sacrificed virtually all of their depth in signing Durant. The truth is that they retained Iguodala and Livingston, by far their most important bench players. It does hurt to lose Bogut who was a great rim protector during his time in Golden State, but they were able to pick up Zaza Pachulia for one year at $2.7 million. Pachulia is not a great shot blocker, but he anchored Milwaukee’s defense when they were towards the top of the league defensively and made the playoffs two years ago. He should be a passable team defender. If David West can play like he did last year for the Spurs, he will be an upgrade for there third big. Rookie Patrick McCaw looks like he could be a real NBA player, and should get plenty of minutes to prove it while trying to fill in for the departed Leandro Barbosa as a backup shooting guard. The Warriors might coast for a lot of the season, as they should, which would drag their win total down in a normal world. This is the Warriors though, and they could sit out two in their prime MVPs and still have the two best players on the floor in a lot of matchup. That’s absurd. They are going to win a lot of games simply by having more talent, and when their top guys aren’t playing Steve Kerr’s genius system should carry them most nights.

Pick: Over, 68

Los Angeles Clippers: 53.5

As is tradition, the Clippers will have a glaring hole at small forward this year. They lost Matt Barnes after 2014–15, and the fact that they “lost” him, instead of asking him to “please never come back”, is alarming in and of itself. Seriously, a guy who is best known for trying to punk Kobe Bryant, and beating up Derek Fisher for dating his wife has been their best small forward in recent years. Geriatric Paul Pierce is no longer quick enough to keep up with small forwards. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, despite being in contention for most annoying name in the NBA, is just not very good at basketball. I guess that makes Wesley Johnson their best wing, and the Clippers were his fourth team in six years last year. Despite that, the Clippers managed to win 53 games even with Blake Griffin missing most of the season with a hamstring injury, as well of a case of breaking his hand on an another dude’s face. (Remember that time he shoved a trainer’s head into his crotch? What does Blake have against trainers, anyhow?) Griffin has reportedly extended his shooting range again, adding a three pointer to his game. If Griffin can reliably hit even 35% from three, that will drastically open up the lane for the Paul/Jordan pick and roll while simultaneously creating more open shots for Redick as well. With basically the same roster as last year, it’s hard to see them being any worse, or any better than last year.

Pick: Over, 55

Sacramento Kings: 32.5

As always, the Kings project to be a collection of basket case personalities towards the bottom of the league. I can’t foresee any problems at all with a locker room including Matt Barnes, DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and Ty Lawson. Not to mention Darren Collison, who was recently suspended for 8 games following an altercation with his wife. Maybe Dave Joerger can keep things under control in Sacramento, provided he isn’t fired 24 games into the season like Mike Malone was. The Kings figure to be a train wreck yet again. I hear the new arena is nice though.

Pick: Under, 30

Los Angeles Lakers: 24.5

Things are looking promising for the Lakers again, now that Supreme Tank Commander Byron Scott is gone. Scott was brought in to lose games, which he did masterfully, but he also excelled at ruining locker rooms and hampering the development of young stars. D’Angelo Russell has looked great this preseason without having to worry about playing next to Kobe Bryant. Jordan Clarkson has been a great find, though they have a bit of an impasse at the point guard position as a result. Ingram is exciting. Those are the good things about the Lakers. Bad things: “Chairman” Yi Jianlian, Timofey “If He Dies, He Dies” Mozgov, Metta “Pass to Kobe” World Peace, and Nick Young. Young may be a net positive thanks to the comedy factor, as long as he isn’t on the court very much. I understand the need for veteran locker room presences, but those guys are not the ones you want to have. The Lakers also owe a top 3 protected pick, so we may see them tank since their isn’t much incentive for them to win something like 30 games.

Pick: Under, 24

Phoenix Suns: 26.5

Devin Booker has looked great in preseason, decisively driving to the rim and regaining the shooting he lost in the second half last year. Brandon Knight is better than people give him credit for these days, and Eric Bledsoe is still a good player when he can stay on the floor. Outside of that, they really don’t have much besides an 18 with a cool name in Dragan Bender.

Pick: Under, 19

Southwest

San Antonio Spurs: 56.5

They lost Tim Duncan to retirement, and Boris Diaw to the Jazz. Diaw is a bigger loss than a lot seem to realize, while Duncan’s impact may be overrated a little (at least on the court). They added Pau Gasol who is still good for a double double even though he is a turnstyle on defense, and David Lee who may still be worth something in limited time off the bench. Parker and Ginobili both look to be about done, but Patty Mills is more than serviceable as a lead guard. At least one of Kyle Anderson, Dejounte Murray, and Jonathon Simmons should emerge as competent NBA players this season, which will help negate Ginobili’s decline. The Spurs are still the Spurs, and in Pop we trust.

Pick: Over, 58

Memphis Grizzlies: 43.5

The Grizzlies played an NBA record 28 different guys last year. That’s two full rosters worth. Unless the gods decide to smite Memphis again this year, the Grizzlies will have much better health (seriously, the 2014–15 Thunder had better injury luck), and it should show in their record. Sure, Gasol is coming off a foot injury, Chandler Parsons’ knee is still a mystery, and Zach Randolph is so old that he played on a team with Shawn Kemp, Scottie Pippen, and Steve Kerr. Speaking of old guys, did you know Vince Carter was still around? He played with Steph Curry’s dad. That’s like when your high school teacher says “I taught your mom in school years ago!” but with athletic competition where you have to run and jump and stuff. Anyhow, Mike Conley still has at least one year of good basketball in him, Brandan Wright is a solid player, and David Fizdale may shake things up a little bit and introduce some vigor to grit ’n’ grind.

Pick: Over, 46

Houston Rockets: 41.5

Pringles is back, sans the mustache this time. The Rockets understandably want to run away from last year’s disaster, and Mike D’Antoni is the guy for the job. D’Antoni has removed all pretense from the offense, officially declaring that James Harden will play point guard. We could possibly see James Harden, Corey Brewer, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, and Ryan Anderson on the floor at the same time. Will they score 140 points in a game this year? How many times will they give up 140? Who the hell knows? One thing is for sure, there will be a lot of points scored in Rockets games this year. The one bright spot defensively for the Rockets is young center Clint Capela, who may provide just enough rim protection to keep the Rockets from being hilariously bad on defense. They will have an elite offense, which will be enough to keep them in the playoff picture.

Pick: Over, 42

Dallas Mavericks: 39.5

The Mavs should have a decent offense with Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki, a hopefully healthy Wesley Matthews. Defensively, Andrew Bogut should provide stellar rim protection when healthy, and Harrison Barnes is an underrated defender with ability to slide up a position to defend the four and switch on the pick and roll without much trouble. The Mavs don’t have much depth, which is a problem, since only one of their projected starters (Barnes) isn’t an injury risk. Although we’ve said it year after year, this may be the year Dirk finally declines. Rick Carlisle is a great coach, but there’s nothing he can do without his best guys on the floor.

Pick: Under, 37

New Orleans Pelicans: 36.5

The Pelicans looked poised to take the next step after 2014–15, with Anthony Davis a trendy MVP pick for 2015–16. For a variety of reasons, things didn’t materialize for the Pelicans last year, and it doesn’t look much better this season. Davis, while great, has never played more than 68 games in a season. Tyreke Evans is out until mid December after having multiple knee surgeries, and Jrue Holiday is out indefinitely to be with his wife Lauren as she recovers from brain surgery after the birth of their first child. The Pelicans are another team that has hampered their depth by handing out rich contracts to guys that just aren’t worth it, like Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, and Solomon Hill. This is even more unforgivable since it’s no secret that their core three guys are injury prone. Granted, Holidays’ absence isn’t due to an injury per se, but he hasn’t been a picture of health in the past. This season will be another frustrating one for Davis and company, while he drags them to just enough success for the front office to believe they are only a piece or two away from success.

Pick: Over, 37