We now have 7,164 confirmed cases and 245 deaths.
Confirmed cases are trending under both our Week 5 exponential and linear growth trends from Tuesday, giving us hope that we continue to slow the rate of growth.
However, our rate of improvement is still behind. Our new cases per day and growth rate per day on our Rolling 7 Day Average chart are both above the trends from Week 4:
Deaths
We had a large spike in deaths in San Mateo county, with 11 deaths reported Wednesday. Across the Bay Area, this led to a 12% spike in day over day deaths on Wednesday compared with our more typical 4–6%.
Today I’m introducing a new chart. For a few week’s we’ve had our Rolling 7 Day Average chart for confirmed cases; I am now adding a Rolling 7 Day Average chart for deaths. The black line shows the daily growth in deaths over the previous 7 days. The red columns indicate the average deaths per day over the previous 7 days. The x-axis starts a week after our typical fatalities chart but both end on the same day.
This will help to smooth out some of the bumps we may see from counties not reporting over the weekend or from a surprise 11 deaths in a single day from a single county when they had not reported a death in a week!
Since we not have R7 charts for both confirmed cases and deaths, I’m also adding a chart that displays the R7 growth rate side by side. Of course, this doesn’t correct for different baselines and lags, but I do find solace in the apparent correlation of trends.
I have tried to use familiar colors to help make sense of these charts at a glance. I’ll be back next week with more updates and analysis.
