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Thanks for your question David. As I understand it Tolstoy wants us to view any given historical moment as an inevitable whole... I’m looking at the counter-factual argument at the end of chapter 1 of the epilogue. I think he’s saying that if Alexander had been a more progressive monarch there might not have been so much opposition to him. But those people who are criticising Alexander would also want to support the opposition — Tolstoy’s argument is you can’t have one without the other.