Analysing a Paradigm-Shifting Price Rise in the Bitcoin Market

Disclaimer: I have long exposure to Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin’s rise above $10.5k, I have also been taking leveraged long positions in the BTC derivatives market. Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Read the full disclaimer here. Subscribe here for updates.

It’s been a while since I have given a proper update on this mailing list. I have been focused on writing work for clients so this newsletter has taken a back seat in recent months. But my outlook for Bitcoin recently changed which deserves an update.

It’s been a long time since I have been this bullish on Bitcoin…


BTC Price Tanks As World Rushes For Liquidity Amid Global Economic Crisis

Analysts have been forecasting a global economic crisis for several years. Extraordinarily high valuations in almost all asset classes, extreme debt-to-GDP levels, experimentative monetary policy, a yield curve inversion, and NIRP were all excellent reasons why speculators were expecting a financial crisis.

But generally, when it comes to market analysis, you can’t say “X, therefore Y”. An economic crisis or shock needs to be something unforeseeable.

For the past decade, macroeconomic variables have been logically setting up for a downturn. But the market does not function based on logic.

It works like a massive betting machine where everybody collectively determines…


Some sporadic standalone personal thoughts on markets and social dynamics noted amid the global turmoil caused by the Coronavirus.

This originally appeared on my personal blog.

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As the Corona chaos is unfolding, I jotted down some thoughts from observing the markets and social dynamics over the past few weeks. This is a very rough and unstructured blog post which can be considered as me thinking out loud.

  • The world is far more opaque than we like to think it is.
  • The “worst-case scenario” is not known to you. When you say the “worst-case scenario”, it is simply the worst possibilities you can currently imagine.
  • Different people behave in different ways. …


Core Concepts I Have Found Valuable After Years of Market Analysis

This originally appeared on Adaptive Analysis.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not represent financial or investment advice. You are responsible for your own financial decisions. Read the full disclaimer here.

Subscribe here for updates.

Earlier this month, I announced that I will experiment with releasing a monthly newsletter reporting on market movements. Personally, I have been involved in the markets since leaving college, spending a three-month stint at a derivatives trading firm after graduation.

While that didn’t work out, I kept monitoring the markets as I progressed with other work. As I continue to analyse the markets today, this market…


This was originally published on my personal blog.

“A communications satellite, it will make possible a world in which we can be in instant contact with each other wherever we may be. Where we can contact our friends anywhere on earth, even if we don’t know their actual physical location. It will be possible in that age, perhaps only 50 years from now, for a man to conduct his business from Haiti or Bali, just as well as he could from London”

Arthur C. Clarke in 1964

For the past two years, I have been working remotely. Often glamorized, working…


You can also read this blog post on the Adaptive Analysis website.

Economic conditions become increasingly turbulent after a decade of stimulative monetary policy & negative interest rate policies. A forward-looking indicator which has preceded every recession since the 1950s has recently signalled that a recession is in store. The limited evidence we have suggests Bitcoin has little downside risk in the event of an economic crisis.

Important Disclaimer: Nothing here should be constituted as financial advice. It also should be noted that the writer has upside exposure to Bitcoin, leading to all sorts of biases and degenerative opinions.

This…


An analysis of three trend-based strategies

You can also read this blog post on the Adaptive Analysis website.

Quick take;

  • Emerging markets are more speculative and trend-driven in nature given the absence of robust frameworks to value them
  • As markets mature, prices become increasingly driven by fundamentals-based models
  • A number of trend-based strategies based on past data have managed to outperform bitcoin long and hold positions

In light of recent price increases and “when moon?” midnight messages, it is worthwhile doing a little exploration into the nature of the cryptocurrency market. What do we mean by nature? Don’t worry, we are not going to provide you…


Exploring the Latest Research and Insights from the Crypto World

You can also read this blog post on the Adaptive Analysis website.

Quick take;

  • A 51% attack took place on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain and brings the key value proposition of the network into question
  • Crypto analyst Willy Woo provided insights relating to the cryptocurrency market at a presentation in Bali

BTC.top and BTC.com coordinate a 51% attack on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain

Something big happened recently. A 51% attack was successfully executed on the fourth largest blockchain in the world (by reported market cap figures).

The value proposition of the Bitcoin Cash network is a simple one. …


You can also read this blog post on the Adaptive Analysis website.

In light of the recent price increases, we compare the fundamentals underlying the Bitcoin in 2017 to the state of the network now.

Volatility in the market for bitcoin has been reignited over the past two months with highs forming above $8,000. Such price increases commonly comes with increases in the following:

  • Hopes
  • Dreams
  • Fears
  • Wild speculation
  • Start-ups
  • Fundraising
  • Crypto-related text messages from old friends
  • John McAfee’s prospects of saving his manhood

Early markets tend to be far more subject to trends their mature counterparts. Research by Elms…


Exploring the latest research and news of the crypto world

You can also read this blog post on the Adaptive Analysis website.

Talks of a reorg on the Bitcoin blockchain take centre stage after Binance were hacked for 7,000 bitcoin. Data from Diar show Bitcoin on-chain transactions approach record levels while fees paid to miners remain drastically lower. Crypto conference season is upon us and Bitfinex issue the whitepaper for their proposed $1 billion IEO.

Quick Take;

  • Considerations of a reorg on the Bitcoin network to tackle the Binance hack sparks intense debate in the crypto community
  • Consensus kicks off on Monday but ticket sales are reported to be 50%…

John Lee Quigley

I write crypto and financial markets content. Contact me for professional inquiries at adaptiveanalysis.io

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