Rural* New Hampshire
On polling day ‘08 I was speeding around New Hampshire in a campaign mini-van to transport volunteers for last minute get out the vote ops (I got two speeding tickets, thank you NH, sorry OFA ‘08!)**. We spent so much time in that mini-van power-sliding around icy country road’s we named her Delilah. This was mainly inspired by the lyrics to Tom Jones’s “Delilah”, one of many unofficial Welsh anthems which I often serenaded our baffled and terrified volunteers with while driving. Wales is a largely rural political state, independent in nature and baffling to pollsters. Polls are always wrong in Wales, as they are in New Hampshire, another independent political beast with one of the highest rural-urban ratios in the US.
Growing up in the Welsh Marches I learnt from an early age not to ask the political persuasion of my neighbours, especially in the pub. It is considered impolite, but more than that, a risky move in a tight nit community that often relies on community networks more than government. Farmers, therefore, keep their own counsel and for good reason — outside market influence, supermarkets and mercurial government programs hit rural communities hard. This is why pollsters got it so wrong in Iowa and today’s New Hampshire poll won’t be what pollsters (and media) say it will. Rural voters will often say they are voting with the herd but will then quietly defy conventional wisdom.
Trump and Sanders are likely to win, but watch for how much they win by. Trump underperformed compared to his polling figures and will do so again, perhaps coming second to a more moderate voice. Sanders will likely do well, considering his ties to Vermont. Remember, however, that New Hampshire is the political home to the “Comeback Kid” — Bill Clinton (A nickname he audaciously gave himself, despite coming second). H. Clinton won it in 2008 (despite polls indicating an Obama win). And don’t be surprised if many rural households are talking like Bernie bros at the dinner table, but voting Hillary in the booths.
*I’ve used “rural” so many times in this blog couldn’t help but reference the Rural Juror (30 Rock)
** Sorry NH, being British I didn’t understand the very low speed limits. This was also my defence when confronted by your overly aggressive state trooper — he didn’t buy it.
