Billy Vunipola’s injury doesn’t need to hurt the Lions
In fact it could even help them
There was understandable dismay on Monday when it was announced that Billy Vunipola was ruled out of the British and Irish Lions tour to New Zealand after apparently aggravating a long standing shoulder injury during the Premiership semi-final against Exeter.
Theories abound that Saracens kept Vunipola in the game long after they should have as they chased a place in the Premiership final next week and a shot at the Double Double. One wonders if they had won whether Vunipola would be lining up at Twickenham this Saturday. Indeed some have argued that this was the plan all along, that Saracens and Vunipola knew that his shoulder wouldn’t stand up to a full tour but that he could hold it together for the crucial final club games
Ultimately this discussion is moot — Vunipola is done for the season and there is no point moping about it. Whilst it would have been fun to see Big Billy bounce a few Kiwi’s into next week, Warren Gatland should be focused on filling the now open spot at №8.
The most obvious obvious choice would be Taulupe Faletau. He has the clear advantage of being Welsh and therefore Gatland knows his game inside and out. As we saw 4 years ago, Gatland goes with what he is familiar with and by all accounts, Faletau was likely to start at 6 anyway. This choice would probably cause the least disruption to the game plan that has been formulating in Gatland’s mind the last few months.
Yet if you want to replicate the sheer production of Vunipola, in terms of carries and yards gained, the CJ Stander has to be given the shirt. During the Six Nations he became the first player in Six Nations to rack up 100 or more carries, over 30 more than his nearest competitor. Add that to the first hat trick by a forward since the Five Nations became Six and you have the only player who can be said to have the same carrying impact as Vunipola. Yet he made his Ireland debut less than two years ago and four years ago he didnt’t even speak English (his first language is Afrikaans). He still comes as somewhat of an unknown entity which may put off Gatland. Yet he also has a bigger motor than Vunipola, is an option at the line out, has a better disciplinary record and has shown he is less likely to get injured.
He has worn the 6 jersey for Ireland and that is where I’d imagine he would go, with Faletau playing in his preferred slot at the back of the ruck. But Stander would for all intents and purposes take Vunipola’s role and, in particular, his carries.
There are other options; late bolter Ross Moriarty would be a muscular presence and his exceptional acceleration means he’s a threat on and off the ball. Additionally, the sight of a Kiwi being drilled into the turf like Owen Farrell was by Moriarty in the spring would be delightful.
We can’t forget what happened 12 years ago — the tour was lost after just 90 seconds, when Tana Umaga and Kevin Mealamu conspired to nearly break the neck of Lions captain and best player Brian O’Driscoll. Shorn of their leader, the Lions were mentally shot and were swept 3–0 by a dominant New Zealand side.
The Kiwis haven’t lost that edge, in fact they have refined it. Richie McCaw spent his entire career in the grey areas and he passed that on after he retired to the current generation of internationals. After losing to Ireland in Chicago, many expected the New Zealand team to bounce back and blow there opposition away in Dublin with the expansive style we have come to associate with them. This is not what happened. Instead they put in one of the dirtiest international performances of the professional era. Malakai Fekitoa could easily have picked up a red card, Sam Cane should have seen yellow for concussing Robbie Henshaw. Henshaw was one of three Irish players, along with CJ Stander and Rob Kearney, who were forced from the pitch for Head Injury Assessments. Simon Zebo could well have joined them after falling victim to Fekitoa, whilst Conor Murray took a blatant cheap shot from Dane Coles at the base of the ruck. The regularity with which black clad shoulder clattered into Irish heads and necks appeared almost calculated. Certainly a battered Ireland side struggled to cope as there leaders and best ball carriers were periodically taken out.
The Lions have to expect that level of physicality and calculated brutality. New Zealand are often compared to Barcelona, but that comparison is overly generous. I’d say they are closer to Atletico Madrid, capable of striking with lightning speed, but defensively excellent and more than happy to outmuscle sides. The likes of Moriarty, players with edge, are exactly what the Lions need when facing that challenge. The Lions cannot take a backward step, or allow themselves to be bullied by the Kiwis. They have the physical size, but need to use that intelligently to intimidate and let their opponents know that every cheap shot will be returned with interest.
Vunipola has the size, but he never struck me as a player with edge. Moriarty, Stander and even James Haskell may not be as physically gifted as Billy, but they have a hardscrabble toughness to them that will serve them well in the furnace of a Lions test.