Can the NATO-EU tandem survive?

Germany’s emergence as the Europe’s economic leader has upset the continental balance of power, while other external crises have eroded institutional unity

John Ruehl
Jul 10, 2017 · 7 min read
Map of EU/NATO members in Europe. The US and Canada are also in NATO, but not the EU. The UK is still in the EU, but is negotiating the terms of its departure, while Turkey can’t make up its mind on whether it wants to join the EU or not

After Communist Russia collapsed in the early 90s, liberal democracy appeared destined to spread across all of Europe. Important drivers for it would be NATO and the EU, which enjoyed their first post-Cold War enlargements in 1995 and 1999, respectively.

But following the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, rising tensions with Russia, and fallout from regional war in the Middle East, the long-term survival of these two institutions has been cast into doubt. More members and bad finances have complicated institutional priorities, and that has brought internal divisions. Coupled with some external crises, à la Russia and refugees, the EU and NATO are in rocky straits.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis

In late 2009, several EU countries stopped being able to repay their government debt. In the ensuing economic chaos, accusations were thrown at creditor-countries, alleging they helped finance the debt in the years before the crisis. As the largest creditor nation in the Eurozone, Germany was a prime target.

Germany’s export-heavy economy benefits from the not-so-economically-advanced Greeks and Italians sharing the Euro. It brings down the exchange rate of the currency, and makes Germany’s high-end products more competitive on global markets. As the EU’s economic heavy-lifter and most-populous member, Germany dominates its financial decisions. Britain and France, who used to be able to balance against the German economy, have been forced to cede power.

The austerity measures that were required to receive EU financial aid continue to be deeply unpopular, particularly in Greece. Some have even predicted that Greece will drop the Euro as its national currency. Meanwhile, in December 2015, Germany recorded its lowest-ever unemployment rate. That same month, Italian leaders announced their highest-ever unemployment rate. The crisis helped to establish Germany as the clear leader of the EU’s economy, but also damaged its reputation within the institution. Though the EU’s sovereign debt crisis is far from over, other issues have simply replaced its sense of urgency.

Russian language prominence in Ukraine

Russia/Ukraine

At the heart of the current crisis in western/Russian relations lies Ukraine. The country is not in the EU or NATO, but has occasionally flirted with joining both. After Ukraine’s President rejected a EU membership plan in 2013 (in favor of an increased economic relationship with Russia), protests led to his departure and the installation of a pro-EU government. In return, Russia invaded eastern Ukraine and seized the Crimean Peninsula. In response to that, EU and NATO countries (minus Turkey) placed economic sanctions on Russia.

But the sanctions have been felt on both sides. Hungary, for example, counts on Russian trade to fuel their economy. They have been affected by the sanctions more than others. Meanwhile, countries such as Greece, Italy, and Cyprus “do not feel threatened and are advocating for better relations with Russia.” This stands in contrast to the hardline approach to Russian aggression adopted by EU/NATO members like Britain, Poland, and Denmark.

The EU/NATO response to Russian aggression has been unilateral sanctions. But they have not been enforced with unilateral enthusiasm. For some countries, it is perhaps the first time that adhering to institutional policy has hurt them more than it has benefited them. Numerous EU members have since questioned the wisdom behind the measures. Without a greater emphasis on burden-sharing and the commonality of the Russian threat, sanctions will continue to sow disunity between member states.

Migrant routes into Europe

Refugee crisis/Arab Spring

Finally, we make our way to the refugee crisis and Arab Spring. In 2015, Germany stated that it was prepared to grant temporary residency to all refugees, for a limited duration. That year, 1.5 million people would arrive in Germany from across the Middle East and beyond. Though most were refugees, the influx included large amounts of economic migrants, and ISIS members who would go on to commit attacks in other countries.

A wave of terrorist attacks in Europe since 2014 have been linked to the refugees, even though most of the attackers were homegrown Islamic extremists. In response, border controls have been reintroduced across the Schengen Zone, one of the most successful indicators of European integration. Countries like Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland are facing legal action for refusing to accept an EU quota of refugees, due to security concerns. This has brought them at odds with German leaders, who want to see them evenly distributed across the EU. The German efforts have not been helped by Donald Trump’s decision to implement a refugee ban from mostly-Muslim war-torn countries.

In the Libyan Civil War, NATO planes helped topple the Qaddafi regime, notably without the the support of Germany. It has resulted in the emergence of three rival governments fighting for control over Libya. Britain, France, and the US support a government directly opposed to the one supported by fellow NATO-member Turkey, and Libya has arguably become a failed state as a result. In the Syrian Civil War, the US and Turkey are constantly at odds over American support for Syrian Kurds, while the Russian-Turkish rapprochement after their 2015 “incident” has been profound. The civil wars have added to the perception that “more than a strong military alliance, NATO is at its worst and looks like a house divided against itself.

A tipping point?

This is not the first time that NATO has been in disarray. In 1966, the French withdrew their armed forces from the military command structure of NATO, only to rejoin in 2009. In 1974, Turkey invaded Greek-controlled Cyprus, putting the two NATO members at odds ever since. But the original mantra of NATO, to Keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down”, superseded all other concerns. As the Soviet Union crumbled in the late 80s and early 90s, so too did the common threat of Russia. The Americans lost their most important reason for defending Europe, while East and West Germany were allowed to reunify.

In Hans Kundani’s The Paradox of German Power, it is revealed that in September 1989, just before German reunification, the French President remarked to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, “without a common currency, we are all already subordinate to the German’s will”. Instead, Germany managed to utilize the Euro as an economic advantage, and their economic hegemony in the EU was steadily cemented.

For Britain, who never adopted the Euro as its currency, the decision to leave the EU in 2016 was no doubt influenced by the dominant economic position Germany created for itself. Britain’s departure also meant the US’ strongest link to the EU was gone. But 2016 also brought us the election of Donald Trump. The US, which has long derided the free-riders in NATO, elected a man who campaigned on a platform undermining the entirety of NATO, by consistently calling the alliance obsolete and for alliance members to start paying their share. The fact that both Brexit and Donald Trump resonated so strongly with millions of people suggests the western liberal alliance system is creaking under pressure.

What we can conclude is that Germany’s reunification completely upended the economic balance of power that West Germany, France, and Britain had cultivated between them. When a major financial crisis hit, Germany proved itself as the dominant economic power in the EU, making many members uneasy.

The end of the Cold War meant liberal democracy was free to expand across Europe. But Russia was still too big to be absorbed by the European community, and it attempted to keep as much of its former sphere of influence as possible. This led to an inevitable and exhausting confrontation with the US, as well as European allies who still see Russia as the major threat facing the continent.

The refugee crisis came on top of the economic and military divisions brought about by the sovereign debt and Ukraine crises. Coupled with decades of mostly-Muslim immigration to western Europe and a rise in Islamic terrorism, eastern Europe and Trump’s America have questioned just how liberal they want to be in regards to accepting refugees. Wars against Turkish and Russian allies in the Middle East are destined to continue, meaning more refugees are yet to come.


How cohesive is a military alliance without a commonly acknowledged threat or threats? How stable is a political bloc without the means to defend itself? The growth of both the EU and NATO have not guaranteed an increase in strength; rather, it has diluted the collective resolve of the institutions by exacerbating tensions between members with contradictory national policies.

This is manageable occasionally. It is not manageable when every crisis is met with division, bickering, and blame. The EU and NATO act as complementary organizations, a carrot and stick for liberal democracy if you will. But they are no longer as appealing or solid as they were a decade or two ago; right-wing parties are threatening to undo all the work that western integration has accomplished over decades, ISIS is looking to take advantage of the chaos when it can, and Russia is laughing all the way to its heavily-sanctioned banks. If NATO/EU lose more members, let’s not act so surprised.

John Ruehl

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Clickbait sensationalism and politics, find me on The Interpreter, Intl. Policy Digest, and PoliticsMeansPolitics. Twitter @john_ruehl 💰paypal.me/JohnRuehl

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