I had similar thoughts for months now. So far the game was about quantity, gain a lot of users, make sure they use it a lot, but things are changing and people are looking for some particular interests, with higher quality and focus.
When I look at my Facebook, it’s such a mess. A mix of old friends, family, tech people, political journalists, health gurus… no matter what I post, it’s very likely that 90% of people will not find it very interesting, because it’s not their topic.
Facebook Groups are kind of substitute for this, but people don’t use it much, because it’s too attached to Facebook itself, there is an emotional baggage to it, and it seems to me that Facebook is not aware of this problem, they keep trying to merge everything under one umbrella.
People prefer clean slates, far away from old, so those niche networks are the future.
But I really doubt that one player will figure this out, we will probably witness a total fragmentation, each ‘tribe’ building their own standards and rules.
You know, like in old days, in the caves :-)