No, You Haven’t Missed This Bull Market!

I was recently asked the following questions: “For new entrants to crypto who missed this run, what do you suggest they do. Will crypto pullback short term? How to balance this with holding long term?”

I’m breaking the answers up as they are fairly diverse topics and I want to make sure that readers understand the core pieces of each before moving on to the next element.

Pt 1:

First: the BTC ETFs mean that you have absolutely NOT missed “this run”, as it is just getting started.

Understanding the impact of BTC ETF flows is difficult for new entrants in the space, as the order of magnitude of capital flow is beyond their experience or understanding.

In short, this is the most amount of money that has ever been onboarded into crypto, both in daily nominal $ value and in terms of relative to the size of the existing crypto ecosystem.

Previously the largest participants such as MicroStrategy would purchase clips of BTC in hundreds of millions of USD$ approximately every month for a total accumulation of 205,000 BTC, currently worth ~$15 billion USD.

A good effort all around by Mr. Saylor 🫡

In comparison, now Blackrock’s BTC ETF alone is having DAILY inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars. While the inflows remain positive, it is almost mathematically impossible for the entire crypto market to not rise alongside them.

To illustrate the aggressive speed in which Blackrock has hoovered up BTC, look at this absurd graph which shows that Blockrock has surpassed Microstrategy’s BTC holdings in a fraction of the time.

but, Larry Fink is not playing games, he’s here to dominate.

There are 10 other US-based BTC ETFS, and dozens more globally being launched in the next few months.

Long story short, no, you haven’t missed “this move”, because “this move” is really a paradigm shift in the cryptocurrency markets and you’d do well to be on the right side of it.

Up Next:

In part 2 of this new entrant response, I’ll discuss the difference between Alpha and Beta. Understanding these concepts is critical for making the most of your energy and keeping your head on straight when looking at a hyper-volatile market such as crypto.