Can Donald Tusk lead Poland towards a new era in EU relations?
After eight years under the rule of Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, the recent parliamentary elections on 15 October have paved the way for a significant change in direction. Polish voters chose to entrust three centrist opposition parties — Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left — with the task of forming a new government. This political transition carries with it the promise of reshaping Poland’s relationship with the European Union, and at the forefront of this transformation stands Donald Tusk, the leader of the Civic Coalition.
Donald Tusk is, of course, no stranger to international politics. He previously served as Poland’s Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014 and held the prestigious position of President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019. He is also well liked, and respected, by many officials and politicians in Brussels — many of whom will also welcome a another high-profile and avowedly pro-EU leader from a large member state. But even with a good section of the Brussels-bubble on his side, he faces a tough task to achieve his goal of inserting Poland into the heart of EU decision making.
First he has to conclude negotiations for the new Polish coalition government, and the allocation of ministerial positions will be intensely scrutinised. Behind the scenes, discussions over red lines, principles of government, and ministerial roles have already begun. The Third Way movement is reportedly seeking control over the Ministry of Defence, alongside other key positions such as Agriculture and Culture. Civic Coalition is anticipated to oversee the Ministry of Finance and the pivotal economic ministries, while The Left may gain influence over the welfare agenda.
Protocol also stipulates that President Andrzej Duda, a member of the ruling Law and Justice Party and in office until 2025, must first consult with all parties in the Sejm (the parliamentary lower chamber) to determine who should make an attempt to form a government. While representatives from the Civic Coalition encourage President Duda to allow Tusk to proceed, constitutional considerations may lead the President to consider that Law and Justice, as the largest single party, has a prior right to attempt to form a government. So, the timing of Tusk’s assumption of the Prime Minister role is contingent on the President’s approach; he could take office any time from mid-November to late December.
Poland and the European Union
But even as PM in-waiting, Donald Tusk wasted no time in embarking on a crucial diplomatic mission to Brussels to rekindle friendly relations with the European Union.
The visit is symbolic, a clear attempt to signal a fresh approach from Poland, with a new government looking to play a more active and constructive role in the European legislative process. Tusk’s leadership is expected to bring a more enthusiastic approach to EU Green Deal decarbonisation and renewable energy targets, aligning with environmental and climate policy objectives — even if achieving this balance with the influential agricultural sector in Poland presents challenges.
The immediate priority for Tusk in Brussels, however, is the release of EU Covid recovery funds, which are currently frozen due to EU concerns over the “rule of law” in Poland. During last week’s visit, Tusk met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. At a joint press conference with von der Leyen, Tusk emphasized the necessity of employing all available methods to secure the funds owed to Poland.
Tusk’s previous leadership role in the European People’s Party (EPP) also enabled him to engage with the group’s current leaders. EPP President Manfred Weber welcomed Tusk’s victory, but stressed that the disbursement of European funds would not be possible without the fulfillment of conditions set out by the Commission, which includes the reversal of judiciary reforms introduced by the PiS government. Even with the goodwill and momentum of an emphatic election victory, this could take time to achieve.
But, Donald Tusk’s proactive diplomacy in Brussels already signifies a significant shift in Poland’s approach to the European Union. The coming months are likely to see challenging negotiations and discussions, but Poland’s pursuit of better relations with the EU and the release of these crucial funds will be at the forefront of Tusk’s new government, and as the pages turn on this new chapter in Polish politics, Brussels and member state capitals will be watching closely.