Crowdstrike IPO Analysis — 5 Key Metrics

Jon Ma
Jon Ma
Jun 11 · 6 min read

Originally published at https://www.publiccomps.com/blog/crowdstrike-ipo-in-5-key-metrics

Crowdstrike is going public this Wednesday, June 12th. In preparation for the IPO, here at Public Comps we benchmarked Crowdstrike against the other best Public SaaS companies using our data platform from publiccomps.com. It’s very rare to have a public SaaS company go public at 100%+ year-over-year growth, but in 2019 we’ve had the treat of having Zoom and now Crowdstrike go public!

Read through below to understand how Crowdstrike stacks against other companies like Zoom, Alteryx, MongoDB, Elastic, and Slack.

1. 🔥 Revenue Scale + Growth: Crowdstrike is #1 Fastest Growing Public SaaS Company at 108% YoY revenue growth. We benchmark against the top quartile SaaS companies in terms of revenue growth. Note that Zoom is now #2 at 103% but there’s a 20%+ drop off until the next company Twilio which is growing quickly at 81% (revenue growth juiced in part by the Sendgrid acquisition). *

2. 👍Room to Grow vs Competitors: Among the competitors Crowdstrike calls out in its S-1, Crowdstrike is growing the fastest by a wide margin and it seems that there’s still quite a lot of room to grow.*

For example, in the traditional anti-virus market, Symantec is actually shrinking year-over-year at $4.7b revenue and -2% growth; McAfee is at roughly $2.5b revenue growing in the mid single digits % and just laid off 200 employees in January 2019 according to The Information. The notable exception is Cylance* which was growing 90% and roughly $100m revenue but was then acquired by Blackberry.

With a ~$25b global opportunity in the various security segments that Crowdstrike addresses, there’s a lot of room for Crowdstrike to grow and continue to replace legacy solutions like McAfee and Symantec which are $B+ revenue behemoths.

3. 📈Strong Expansion within customers and retention: Crowdstrike has best-in-class net dollar retention at 140% which is #2 among our top SaaS companies. What this means is that , say , the January ’18 cohort of customers that signed up paid $10m initially. 12 months later, the same cohort will be spending $14.7m! This is one of the most attractive traits of enterprise SaaS companies. Crowdstrike’s high net dollar retention is driven by

1) High gross dollar retention (98%) which suggests customers very rarely churn or downsell — not surprising given the mission-critical nature of Crowdstrike’s security platform.

2) Crowdstrike’s strong upsell of existing customers via strategy of acquiring a customer with one module and customers purchasing additional modules over time: 47% of subscription customers have adopted four or more cloud modules as of January 31, 2019 (up 17%+ from 30% in January 31, 2018)!

4.Acquiring customers relatively efficiently: What’s impressive is despite being the #1 SaaS company by growth rate, Crowdstrike is able to do so relatively sales efficiently with a blended of 15 months* (see our caveat for how we calculate the payback period) versus a median of 22. The low payback period may be a reflection of Crowdstrike’s new GTM strategy of having a low-touch/low-sales free trial option for customers starting in December 2017 which should be a lower cost channel of acquiring customers.

5. 💸Negative Free Cash Flow % Margin: Unlike Zoom, Crowdstrike is not profitable and has -25% Free Cash Flow margins (lowest among SaaS companies with the exception of Slack) and burned $65m in FCF in fiscal year ending January 2019. However, what’s encouraging is that

1) Free Cash Flow % in 2019 is -25% but down from -49% in 2018 and -123% in 2017

2) Crowdstrike has $191m of cash on its balance sheet — not accounting for the $600m cash+ the company plans to raise in its upcoming IPO. The cash post IPO should provide financial cushion for a business that’s lowering its FCF burn every year.

💰 Valuation Expectation: Lastly, given how fast Crowdstrike is growing, public market investors will likely value the business on a forward revenue basis. The Median EV/Forward (NTM) Revenue Run Rate for our top quartile SaaS company is ~13x. Crowdstrike’s $321m Run Rate would imply a forward revenue run rate of $615m Run Rate ($321m * (1+108%*85%)) which would imply an enterprise value of $8.1b. It wouldn’t be surprising if Crowdstrike does trade for the close to ~20x+ Forward Run Rate Revenue that Zoom is trading for given the 100%+ YoY growth; however, Crowdstrike is not yet close to profitable and public market investors may discount their growth as a result.

Caveats

  1. We use Revenue Run Rate (Quarterly Revenue * 4) which includes subscription, license, and services. Not all public SaaS companies report ARR so Revenue Run Rate was the best apples to apples comparison we could get.
  2. In our competitor list, we use revenue instead of ARR or Revenue Run Rate because McAfee is private and we could only find revenue numbers from scanning various articles online. The numbers aren’t great apple to apple comparisons because they refer to revenue at different points in time.
  3. For Forward Revenue Run Rate, we calculate the current year-over-year growth and multiply it by 85% given the predictable growth decay of Public SaaS companies
  4. Disclosure: my previous investment firm, Insight Venture Partners, was an investor in Cylance prior to the Blackberry acquisition
  5. We calculate payback period by taking Implied Net New ARR of the most recent quarter (Current Quarter Revenue — Last Quarter Revenue)
  6. To better understand the “why” behind the metrics, please look at “Top 5 SaaS Metrics VCs Look At for Series A/B/C” which somewhat generalizes for growth public SaaS companies.

This document is for general informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or any offer to provide investment advisory or investment management services. The information in this document should not be construed as any current or past endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company or security by SaaSy Metrics, LLC. This document does not constitute a solicitation, offer, opinion, or recommendation by SaaSy Metrics to buy or sell any security, or to provide legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice or services regarding the profitability or suitability of any security or other investment. At the time of issuance of this document, SaaSy Metrics, LLC did not hold any interest in Crowdstrike. Please refer to our User Agreement for more detailed information.

Jon Ma

Written by

Jon Ma

Building Public Comps. Former VC @ Signalfire and Insight Venture Partners

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