4 Things Democrats Need to Know for 2018
If you’re following cable news — heck, if you’re following the news at all, it seems like everybody has a reason, explanation, or an excuse for why Democrats failed to secure the Presidency in November. Not enough people challenged Clinton, or Sanders fought Clinton for too long, Trump tapped into the silent majority (yuck!), Clinton was unelectable, Trump had limitless media exposure. You’ve heard them all right?
The most prevalent narrative has been that Democrats simply weren’t excited about Hillary, evidenced by a historically low rate of the voting eligible population turning out at the polls. Second only to the adamant assertion that working-class whites handed Trump the Presidency. Less than a month after E-Day, a CNN Politics producer named Gregory Wallace wrote a piece titled “Voter Turnout at 20-year Low in 2016”, see the article here.
CNN has an immense viewership across America, particularly among those who would self-identify as moderate and left-leaning. In part, it is understandable why the story became the headline — I’ll reserve an analysis of this phenomena until a later date. What we might have forgotten is what Mr. Wallace actually claimed in the article:
Voter turnout this year dipped to nearly its lowest point in two decades. While election officials are still tabulating ballots, the 126 million votes already counted means about 55% of voting age citizens cast ballots this year. That measure of turnout is the lowest in a presidential election since 1996, when 53.5% of voting-age citizens turned out. As election officials go through outstanding ballots — such as provisional ballots and those with write-ins — the turnout figures will change. But it would take another 18.7 million votes to reach the high point for turnout of 2008, when nearly 64% of voting age citizens cast a ballot.
Only those who made it to the last few lines of the article were spared the salacious headline, perhaps a metaphorical microcosm of the state of the media industrial complex. A far more recent report covered by The Hill, “New report finds that voter turnout in 2016 topped 2012" states the contrary, with some revealing findings and tied to some important lessons that Democrats would be wise to take home. So without further ado, here are the 4 things Democrats need to know for 2018:
4. DON’T expect midterms to be a reverse of the Red Wave of 2014
Political operatives at the state-wide and congressional levels or above have for too long given too much weight to “standard” models of elections and dismissed everything else as an anomaly. If this continues, Democrats are going to walk out of 2018 with a boot print on their butts. In 2016, the DNC threw their support behind Clinton in the early days. This is understandable considering that she is arguably the first Presidential candidate to ever be over-qualified for the job, and had laid out a blueprint for pragmatism (something no other candidate from either side of the aisle really did). However, Sanders mobilized a very different block of voters — a plurality of progressive voters who were moved by a sincere appeal to ideals.
“…to be frank…the alternative is President Donald J. Trump. You decide.”
Obama coalesced these to factions expertly in 2008, because even then, Clinton was the one proposing pragmatism, against an upstart professing a sincere appeal to ideals in his message. What I’m saying is that Hillary supporters weren’t going anywhere but to the polls had she lost the nomination, but many Sanders voters stayed home and even more pulled their support from the Democratic Party and Voted for Donald Trump when election day rolled around. I’ve heard Clinton loyalists argue that they shouldn’t be used as a mainstay of support to back up whichever charismatic upstart throws their hat in the ring, but to be frank…the alternative is President Donald J. Trump. You decide.
3. Make your house a home; BE the party of inclusion
Can we drop the damn labels already? Identity politics isn’t flawed, but going about it in a duplicitous manner is transparent. Democrats should not be the party of the gays, Mexicans, Blacks, and women. That coalition on paper can be a dominant one, but in practice it means mincing their message beyond recognition every time they enter a room. People might be ignorant, but intuition is at the forefront of most decision-making processes, and people can (contrary to what many a layman might believe) sense when they are being manipulated. They may not know exactly how, or have any ability to do anything about it, but they know. Democrats should be the party of everyone that is not a Republican. As we know from the results of November’s election, that is a large majority of Americans. This would be a coalition that is sustainable, especially with the foundations of inclusive politics in place. Defining your party in the negative doesn’t scary away those people in the majority of the American electorate, or those donors who could otherwise be willing to max out for their candidate. This brings me to my next point…
2. Trump voters haven’t gone anywhere
Can we ignore, for a moment the fact that tensions between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS) mean that the midterm elections will likely remain just as vulnerable to interference as they were in the 2016 presidential elections. The 49% — and it is 49% — of Americans that voted in November are still here. Most of them are NOT upset with Trump at all. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 belong to Democrats, and 10 of those are in states that Trump won. That’s a lot of defense to be playing when the politician (cough, cough) with the megaphone is President Trump. The outlook is bleak, and political operatives are speculating about the chances of a GOP supermajority in the Senate that would be filibuster-proof (60 seats). This means appointments including for the Supreme Court could fly through the chamber like the Concorde to its premature death. Dear Democrats, don’t think for a second that you can count on scooping up remorseful Trump supporters. Not happening. Bad bad plan. A lot of people tell me this.
1. But there really aren’t THAT many of them
Finally, the good news for Democrats: You have about 10 minutes to catch your breath (if you haven’t spent them all reading this). Between marches, rallies, community organizing, testifying before lawmakers, blowing up the phones and inboxes of elected officials, circulating petitions, campaigning, and — in some states — voting, you’ve been quite the rowdy bunch of activists. Alas, there is hope for the wayward Democrat. They can reasonably hope to pick up 11 seats in the House of Representatives without overextending themselves. Unfortunately for Democrats, it’ll take a bigger win than that to gain a majority, but with how productive Congress has been and with the President actively and indiscriminately attacking the members the legislative body (and his cabinet?), an opening may present itself. Even with a big win, it is critical for success to have an exit strategy, and by that I mean to be prepared for victory and not surprised by it.
