How to Save the Last Tree

We’ve all witnessed people making really dumb decisions. Just in the middle of witnessing someone make such a decision, a colleague shared the Viking decision-making model. Step 1. Drink with your Viking friends until a drunken epiphany strikes. Step 2. If everyone still thinks the solution is sound sober, go with it.

Did the Vikings discover the secret to better decision-making? To answer this question, I checked into how other ancient societies made decisions.

Jared Diamond, author of Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, studied the dumb decisions leading to societal collapse. The Easter Island society and their over consumption of natural resources is one such case study in collapse. When teaching Collapse 101, Diamond introduces the subject with a simple question, “What did the islanders say as they cut down the last palm tree?”

What would you have done or said if you were the sober one at the Easter Island tree cutting party?

Based on Diamond’s 4 step decision-making roadmap to collapse, here’s what really happened on Easter Island and how you could have saved the last tree.

Maybe the Easter Island story will save you the next time your boss is dropping the axe in your company.

Step 1. There will be a problem?
Bob was the Easter Island chief and liked to cut down trees. He lacked any relevant experience in forestry or conservation. Even worse, Bob didn’t listen to anyone or look at the past. He loved using analogies like, “Cutting down a tree is just like pulling weeds, one will always grow back.”

• Solution: Ensure you can anticipate problems. Don’t ever hire chiefs without first checking references. If you’re already stuck with him or her, try offering some historical perspective. Last, don’t believe every analogy you hear. Many will be false.

Step 2. There is a problem?
Bob kept chopping down trees. He was a distant manager. He sat back and told everyone else to chop down trees without really knowing how many were left. Bob kept saying, “Don’t worry, we’ve been cutting down trees for centuries and have been ok. This number of trees is normal.”

• Solution: Always address problems as they arise. Get your chief out of the office and take him or her on a tour of their treeless island. Combat creeping normalcy by graphing the historical downward trend of palm trees.

Step 3. We can’t solve the problem!
Bob’s piña colada party ran out of wooden tiki cups and he just noticed he’s out of trees. Bob was too drunk to feel any consequences. Plus, he lived in a hare paenga (Easter Island mansion) on the hill, insulated from the pain felt by the commoners in their wood huts on the beach below. Bob believed the 887 stone statues, or moai, of his ancestors would save him.

• Solution: Develop effective ways to solve problems. Equalize the consequences felt by your chief by inviting him or her to your hut. Challenge beliefs. Often times the values that worked in the past will not always continue to work in the future. Don’t be afraid to topple your chiefs’ idolic statues.

Step 4. We’re failing to solve the problem!
Bob continued to fail to see a solution to the problem. He thought the work was too difficult and realized it was too late as nobody thought to store any palm tree seeds.

• Solution: Creative problems need creative solutions. Or creative exits. If your chief is checking out, grab that last wooden canoe and start rowing to the next island. You’ll soon have your day back in the shade.

Jacob Roggeveen discovered Easter Island on Easter Sunday 1722. He encountered a population of around 2,000, down from 15,000 centuries earlier. In 1774, Captain Cook described the islanders as “small, lean, timid and miserable.”

The next time you see someone cutting down the last tree, use Diamond’s decision-making roadmap. Only you can save the last tree.