Setting Expectations for Kickoff Returns

I was just in the middle of watching the New York Jets play the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. I’ve been a Jets fan ever since 5th grade. I always think they are going to win. Except when the Jets are down 24 to 10 with 14:50 left in the fourth quarter. Only twice have the Jets come back from 14 points down in the fourth quarter. Needless to say, my once high expectations were now sacked and I was scrambling for safety.

The Jets came back to win 27 to 24. Funny how things get more exciting when your expectations are crushed and you’ve nearly given up all hope. There’s a lot we can learn from the National Football League (NFL) on setting expectations.

In March of 2011, NFL owners voted to move kickoffs from the 30 to 35 yard line. Players and fans blasted the change saying that all kickoffs would result in touchbacks. Just like my Jets game, expectations dropped. No more kickoff returns for touchdowns? Could football still remain as exciting as before?

To answer that question, let’s take a look at the data from 2006 to game 1 of 2011. Thanks to Yahoo! Sports for the statistical data.

Check out 2011. The percentage of kickoffs that weren’t returned (aka touchbacks) jumped up to 49.7%. Only 50.3% even attempted a return! Pretty boring and lame. What’s interesting in the data is that those that did try to return kickoffs in game 1 were rewarded. 3.7% of those that attempted a return scored.

So what?

That percentage is the highest rate of return in any year this century. In fact, the average from 2001 to 2010 is only 0.7%. Maybe teams just weren’t expecting anyone to try to run back a kickoff from their own end zone. I know I wasn’t. Sure, only 1 of every 2 players attempted to return a kickoff. But what could be more exciting than a touchdown when you least expect it? Three of them to be exact. A tied record for most in the first game of any season in history.

What can we learn about the NFL’s kickoff return rule change and setting expectations?

Talk to anyone that has high expectations placed upon them and I bet you’ll hear the same thing. “It’s impossible to beat expectations”. While nobody really wants people to “lower expectations of them”, sometimes it’s necessary every once in a while. The truth is that sometimes the best moments in life are born from hail marys at the last second, impossible fourth quarter comebacks and 108 yard record breaking kickoff returns.

Whether you are husband of the year or employee of the week, don’t forget about expectations. Are you ready to lower some expectations? Here’s some do’s and don’ts straight from the NFL.

Do it before the season starts
Set expectations at the beginning, before anything really happens. People need a clean break to forget some of the excitement from last season. But whatever you do, don’t do it in a way that ruins your credibility or turns people completely off. A change in the middle of the season will only piss off fans. Change expectations just enough so it builds a little anxiety in your fans.

Do it in a comparative way
Set expectations in a way that set them apart from the past. Make sure to talk about how great things used to be and how things will now be different. If you don’t know what cognitive dissonance is, check it out. But don’t give them a choice of something else. Make sure your fans know they are stuck with you far into the future. Everybody loves football. The Canadian Football League (CFL) and Arena Football aren’t alternatives.

Do spread the word
Set expectations to everyone. And employ a mass marketing campaign to lower them. Get people talking about it and create “buzz”. If you only tell a few people, your fans will get super confused. “Is he like the Green Bay Packers or the Kansas City Chiefs?” You don’t want people wondering that. Trust me.

Do something good, but not great … yet
Here’s the easiest part. Now, just keep doing what you’ve always done. And hop over that lowered bar. Don’t fly over it, because you will just reset expectations back to the way they were when you were Peyton Manning (before his injury). Get better a little each day, make a few first downs, then throw your hail mary for the score.

Sure, it’s what you used to do all the time, but now it’s somehow much more exciting.