Dan, you make a lot of great points!
I agree that that specific NFL regular season game isn’t between the two hottest teams or markets. However, Sunday National NFL games ranged between 25–30 million viewers and Sunday Night NFL games ranged between 17–22 million viewers (really rough figures, just eyeballed a chart). But of course, this is on the native platform as you have stated so we can expect a drop.
I think that game matters as a comparison whether there are 5 million, 10 million, or 15+ million viewers because this is the first of its kind. We can certainly compare this to Season 1 of the LoL World Championship and track how it does year over year. I’m using the World Championship figures because regular season eSports games figures aren’t publicized (as far as I can find).
By my own count, the July 26 NA LCS game between C9 and TSM had ~263,400 viewers so we could potentially compare the Bills-Jaguar game to those figures. Ultimately, there won’t be a straight apple to apples comparison in the near future. As long as the NFL finds value in selling streaming-only games, I think that bodes well for eSports media rights.
The E! example is interesting, I’ve never heard of that show or seen that data before. I think these experiments across genres and platforms are all interesting.