What The West Doesn’t Want You To Know About The Russo-Ukrainian War (Why you Cannot Help Ukraine In A Way That Favors Ukrainians)
Introduction
Most in the West believe the U.S.A. and E.U. are helping Ukraine. By supplying them with foreign aid loans. And military supplies to fight Russian invaders.
But this isn’t the case at all.
The US isn’t doing any of this to make Ukraine a more self-sustaining independent republic. Especially when it’s in Russia’s backyard and at risk of nuclear annihilation.
The US is not acting out of altruism towards Ukraine. Their objective is to weaken Russia and turn Ukraine into a debt-ridden colony through a violent and unnecessary proxy war.
But this isn’t the way to help Ukraine. At least, in the long run. And it isn’t the way to make Ukrainians freer and more prosperous people.
Here’s how the unhinged mainstream narrative concealed important information. About this conflict through the deceptive means of our ongoing information war. Don’t believe the 1st paragraph.
The Endgame For Russia
The narrative for this invasion is that Russia is invading Ukraine to build a new soviet union. That’s standard western narrative.
But the reality is much more nuanced.
In this part of the article, I’m going to explain what’s at stake for the Russian Federation. And give more context to the Russian leadership’s perspective of the war.
Russian Territorial Nightmare (The Empire Of Necessity)
As we speak, Russia is the largest country on the planet if we account for its massive landmass of 17.100.000 km2.
But, such an amount of territory comes at a price.
If you’ve ever heard of the Pareto Principle, it states that 80% of results come from 20% of causes.
[Sorry, this is a USSR population map, but it illustrates my point.]
As you can see on the map. 77% of Russia’s population (Which is equivalent to 113 million people in 2020) resides West of the Ural Mountains. And only 5% of its population (8.1 million) resides East of the Ural Mountains.
And that is not the worst part. The flat terrain that is prevalent in Eastern Europe, makes the Russians extremely vulnerable to enemy attacks by the West.
The flat terrain in Eastern Europe made Russia a victim of a total of 8 invasions in the west alone (1242–1941). That’s almost 1 large-scale invasion for each century, that claimed more than 30 million lives in total. Which is roughly the population of Canada.
So as you can see. It is in Russia’s best interests to push its territory as further west as possible. To prevent potential invasions in the future.
That’s why the iron curtain was set in place.
Cold War And The Iron Curtain (A Soviet Wet Dream)
After Operation Barbarossa. The Soviet Leadership realized how important it is for the Soviet Union to have allies in the West.
To promote stability and peace in the region, it must have buffer states in its backyard.
When the Soviet Union established puppet governments in Eastern Europe. It was capable of promoting peace and security in its territory.
From 1945 to 1991, the Soviet Union wasn’t invaded once.
But this ideal meant that its neighbors would have no sovereignty, making them colonies.
This would make the people from these countries completely resentful of Russia, with good reason.
(See this Wikipedia article for more context).
And would make them destroy the protection Russia had.
The 2008 Russo-Georgian War
On November 3rd, 2003. Georgia has a peaceful regime change in the country. The new government becomes more pro-Europe. From this point on Russo-Georgian ties start to deteriorate fast. Sounds familiar?
August 1, 2008. South Ossetian Separatists began shelling Georgian villages.
(Or Russian-Wagner Group Mercenaries for those of you who believe it’s Russian propaganda)
Georgian peacekeepers in the region retaliated.
Russia has accused Georgia of committing “genocide” and “invading South Ossetia”.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Georgia, including its undisputed territory. On August 8, calling it a “peace enforcement operation.”
Russian and South Ossetian forces fought Georgians inside and around South Ossetia.
Until the Georgian forces withdrew.
Russian and Abkhaz forces opened a second front by attacking the Kodori Gorge.
Russian naval forces blockaded part of Georgia’s Black Sea coast. The Russian Air Force has hit targets inside and outside the conflict zone. This is the first war in history where cyber warfare is concurrent with military action.
Information warfare is also waged during and after the conflict. Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France, brokered a ceasefire on 12 August.
This is the first situation in this century in which Russia exploits ethnic tensions. Between Georgians, Ossetians, and Abkhazians to gain the upper hand on this front. It secured an important buffer state.
At the end of the day, Russia got what it wanted. And the Europeans and Americans couldn’t care less about this country.
Establishing a precedent for the post-cold war period.
Why Sanctions Won’t Work (At Least In The Short Term)
Let’s face reality, sanctions are complicated. And in the case of Russia, very complicated.
A lot of them made sense in the right context.
(Like freezing Russian state funds, which would limit Russia’s ability to wage war)
But a lot of them were unproductive and utter nonsense that would have any effect whatsoever.
And remember the fact that Russia is a US$1.3 Trillion economy which makes it on its own very difficult to sanction.
There are workarounds in all sanctions.
(Except the non-sense ones)
Remember that, Europe needs Russian oil and gas to meet its energy needs making sanctions useless. Nonetheless, the EU is giving Russia a run for its money in this Energy War.
And above all, when the Russian people suffer because of such sanctions. Their government will blame the West for their hardship. Making it difficult to promote the Pro-Ukraine narrative on the Russian psyche.
Now, let’s see what’s in it for the West.
The Endgame For The West
You might not believe it, but there’s also something at stake for the USA in this war.
The opportunity to make the American military-industrial complex much richer. Debt trapping an already poor European country. And the opportunity to promote a “good guy bad guy” narrative in its puppet states.
[I’m not going to discuss what’s at stake for the European countries. Since they are American puppet states. And always go along with the American narrative]
Despite what you might have heard on the news. Here in this part of the article, I’m going to show the twisted side of the American narrative. And the devious means employed to protect their interests.
American Imperialism (The Invisible New World Order)
The USA is very different from the other empires that have come and gone on our planet. It is very unique in its origins and in the way it operates.
It didn’t take part in the scramble of Africa. It never called itself an empire. And in its origins, it was supposed to be a country apart from the other European empires.
They can force countries to do as they want. (Well at least a good chunk of them) invade any country that they want to. Regime change other sovereign nations. Cutting economies from the international market. And shape the dominant narrative of the “international community”.
The USA and Russia are the same. In this context of which, putting their own interests is more important than anything else.
“We must invade Iraq for its oil reserves” or “We must annex Crimea for strategic importance in the Black Sea”.
Very little thought is put into the long-term consequences of such decisions. And how they might affect the people who actually live on the invaded territories.
I hope I can prove you my point in this part of the article and think twice about the “Support Ukraine” narrative.
1973 Chilean coup d’état
A military takeover in 1973 led to the overthrow of President Salvador Allende.
This was a coup d’etat that has proven to be the work of the CIA.
Between 1970 and the Coup in September 1973 the CIA spent US$8 million on operations. With more than US$3 million going toward the intervention in Chile in 1972 alone.
Almost all of Chile’s significant elections between 1963 and 1973 had American interference. But its direct impact on the results of those elections is unclear.
The effectiveness of the CIA’s voter-swaying tactics has been difficult to assess.
Since from any of its South American neighbors. Chile has a long history of democracy dating back to the early 1930s.
In the elections, none of the candidates had a majority vote.
Nonetheless, congress chose Allende as president.
The U.S. exerted pressure on the Allende government as soon as it took office. To restrict its ability to enact policies that were against the interests of America. Such as Allende’s nationalization of many American companies in the copper industry.
Nixon issued a directive prohibiting Chile from entering new bilateral economic aid agreements. To encourage Allende’s resignation, his ouster, or his defeat in the election of 1976.
After all these events. The outcome was civil unrest that led to the overthrow of the government and Allende’s suicide.
A new government rose with Augusto Pinochet. Also one of the darkest periods in Chilean history.
This proves, especially in the cold war, that it is fine to be a ruthless cruel dictator in America’s backyard. As long as you aren’t “Anti-American”.
2003 American Invasion Of Iraq
Are we also going to forget one of the most unjustified invasions of this century?
U.S. forces invaded Iraq in March 2003. The goal was “destroying the country’s WMDs”. And the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s autocratic rule.
The war support went down when the WMD intelligence proved to be false and a violent insurgency rose.
Iraq had democratic elections and the US imprisoned, tried, and executed Saddam.
Iraq has never been able to become a prosperous country since the sanctions in the 90s. And the American invasion in the 2000s.
And to this day is still a failed state.
American Military Industrial Complex At Work
Let’s face it.
The American military-industrial complex needs war to be prosperous. Business has been low since the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
It’s in its best interest to create wars to sell more weapons. That’s why the USA is providing weapons to Ukraine.
For companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman to profit.
And in the process, Ukraine will pay for the increasing debts.
According to Vyacheslav Volodin, US intentions are clear. “the lend-lease program will enable US military corporations to rake in enormous profits.”
According to the OpenDemocracy, Ukraine owes US$129bn in loans to the IMF and World Bank (78.8% of GDP). And expects to repay US$14bn of it in 2022.
The war incentivized more countries to join NATO’s military alliance. And it also incentivized member states to fulfill their 2% GDP contribution goal.
This translates to trillions spent every single year on American defense contractors. To update the armies with American weapons.
In Ukraine, it would mean that the government would have to spend US$2.58 Billion every single year if it joined NATO.
Western Hypocrisy At Its Finest (Do You Accept These Double Standards?)
As you’ve figured out. This is the part of the article where I ask you some thought-provoking questions about this conflict.
It’s unfathomable why many people in the west accept this inhumane hypocrisy.
I have a question for you.
Is it right for the USA to invade Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, and Libya over the past few decades? While it is unacceptable for Russia to invade Ukraine?
Why is it acceptable for Russia to invade Georgia? And completely unacceptable for Russia to invade Ukraine?
We call Vladimir Putin a Hitler for trying to overthrow a democratic government? Excuse me?!
“The country has struggled to build up a lasting democratic infrastructure as it has veered between leaders who lean toward Russia or toward the West.
Corruption remains a serious problem that government officials have only halfheartedly addressed.
Zelensky has been engaged in a bitter political feud with the man he defeated in a landslide 2019 election, Petro Poroshenko.
Prosecutors have sought to arrest Poroshenko on charges of treason and supporting terrorism, but a court in January said he could await trial while released on his own recognizance.
Poroshenko had been accused of facilitating coal purchases for government enterprises from mines under the control of Moscow-backed insurgents in eastern Ukraine, helping finance the militants. He says the charges are politically motivated.”
Even Tucker Carlson said it himself. He indeed has a point.
“You can’t say it enough, Ukraine is not a democracy. … In American terms, you would call Ukraine a tyranny.”
“Ukraine, to be technical, is not a democracy,”
Carlson also said.
“Democracies don’t arrest political opponents, and they don’t shut down opposition media, both of which Ukraine has done. And by the way, Ukraine is a pure client state of the United States State Department — again, that’s fine. We are not mad about that, go ahead and run Ukraine if you want, if you think you can do a better job than Ukrainians. Just don’t tell us it’s a democracy.”
If this atitude towards this conflict isn’t hypocritical somebody please tell me what this is.
The Endgame For Ukraine
At first, Ukraine aimed to establish closer ties with the West (Like the Baltic states).
As you end up finding out that this hasn’t turned out well for Ukraine. Since after many attempts it tried to join the EU and NATO and they rejected it.
In this section of the article. I am going to show you why Ukraine is stuck and why it is impossible to help them even if you tried.
There’s only one path for Ukraine, debt colonialism.
Why Ukraine Should’ve Never Tried To Angry Russia
It’s a sad reality but we can’t deny it. Some nations are more prone to act in the interests of a superpower.
Ukraine is in that position, whether it likes it or not.
Ukraine tried to join the EU and NATO right after the fall of the soviet union and it failed.
So what could Ukraine do to protect itself from invaders in the east?
The trump card was the nuclear arsenal it inherited from the fall of the soviet union.
But the Russians forced them to get rid of it.
Now, Ukraine is bordering Russia. A country with a much more competent army and nuclear weapons. It will do everything to make its neighbors fall in line.
The writing is on the wall.
Ukraine has three options:
- Establish closer ties with Europe. It might put their territorial integrity in question;
- Establish closer ties with Russia and risk becoming a colony again. (Like Belarus or Kazakhstan);
- Playing both sides and putting itself in a position of neutrality. (Which would be in Ukraine’s best interests, especially in the long term. Like Finlandisation for example);
What did Ukraine choose?
Well, the first one. And it’s not going very well.
You’ve seen it on the news. You can see that Ukraine is making very impressive gains on the battlefield. (Especially in Kharkiv), But they fail to acknowledge what will happen after the war.
What will happen when the war ends regardless of what outcome will unfold?
What can Ukraine do with a war-torn country that needs to be rebuilt and that is completely indebted to the West?
What then?
Who is going to pay for the losses on the battlefield?
Who is going to pay for the destroyed neighborhoods and countless buildings?
Who is going to pay for the foreign aid loans that the USA provided?
Who is going to pay for the World Bank and IMF loans that Ukraine owes?
What are the long-term geopolitical consequences for Ukraine to align with the West?
Concession? Asset forfeiture? Natural resources exploited by foreign companies? Nuclear war with Russia?
These are questions that need answering and I will do my best to provide them.
Why Ukraine Outcome Is Inevitable Loss Of Sovereignty (The “Innocent” Foreign Aid)
Whether it happens through loans that it can’t pay back anytime soon. Russian annexation or forced neutrality, there’s only one outcome guaranteed to Ukraine. Loss of sovereignty.
This means that Ukraine will not be able to use its political power in the best interests of its citizens. Ukraine will have no ability to act independently from foreign powers, whether it is the USA or Russia.
That’s why it’s completely pointless to support Ukraine. For either party, you choose to support (USA or Russia) the outcome will be the same.
Here’s why:
Let’s examine the following outcomes (They are quite plausible outcomes and in all the war ends).
Outcome 1: Ukraine wins the war and defeats Russia completely.
Outcome 2: Russia annexes the southern coast of Ukraine. Russia forces Ukraine to neutrality
In the 1st outcome, Ukraine wins the war and Russia loses. But now, Ukraine is destroyed. It has to rebuild the country and pay back all the weapons and equipment it used in the war.
For context, as we discussed before, the USA already loaned US$54 Billion to help Ukraine in the war. Ukraine also owes US$129bn in loans to the IMF and World Bank (78.8% of its GDP).
[Also forgot to mention that the USA is also the largest shareholder in the International Monetary Fund and a major player in both the IMF and World Bank, having veto power.]
This means that if such an outcome would come to fruition. Ukraine would become an American puppet state.
Meaning they can freeze assets within their borders if they can’t pay these loans. Extract political concessions such as votes in the UN. Building military bases in Ukraine. Withholding trade and investment in areas that the borrower country might rely upon. And getting access to their natural resources for Western companies to exploit.
The more indebted a country is the more it will depend on its lender countries to stay afloat. This is debt imperialism.
The 2nd outcome was the total annexation of the southern coast of Ukraine by Russia. And also forced neutrality to Ukraine. (Similar outcome to the Finnish-Soviet War in the 20th century).
This is a more favorable outcome for Russia and the worst outcome for Ukraine.
Meaning it would turn Ukraine into a landlocked country. Completely dependent on Russia to export its goods. (Since it doesn’t have access to the sea) and would also still need to pay its loans in the first outcome.
This is Ukraine’s worst outcome. Ukraine would be in a more difficult position to pay back its loans, it would most likely default on its debts.
Independent of whatever outcome unfolds. Ukraine will be in a terrible position and will have to act in a way that USA and EU would want it to. Ukraine wouldn’t be able to refuse because it is in debt to them.
This is why Ukraine’s outcome is the total loss of sovereignty.
The Debt-Trap Colonialization Process At Work
When I was finishing writing this article. I failed to explain exactly how the IMF and World Bank make the country an American debt-trapped colony. And how they prosper on the misery and desperation of making Ukraine poorer.
I realized that failing to explain this process would kill the purpose of this article.
Most people don’t know how this process works. It’s very important to explain to you how it does. Because without doing it removes the tangibility of the damage.
This is the outcome Ukraine can’t escape at this point in the war. This is the outcome of the war that deserves most of our attention. Because nobody is talking about this on the internet.
War and debt are the same things. They both want and do the same things. The difference with debt is that it doesn’t need any occupation of troops and it is as dangerous as any war.
This is how the process works (In this case we are going to discuss how this would work in Ukraine).
After a lot of the damages caused by the war in Ukraine. The IMF or World Bank will provide a loan to Ukraine to rebuild its destroyed infrastructure but, there’s a catch.
The money will never enter Ukrainian coffers. Instead, it will go to American construction companies to build this infrastructure. (Roads, Schools, Hospitals, etc…), there’s another catch as well.
Ukraine already owes US$129 billion, nearly 80% of its GDP. According to DW, it will cost roughly US$349 Billion for the reconstruction of the country.
What can Ukraine do to afford its reconstruction?
Well, that is when restructuring and refinancing come to play. Ukraine could apply for another loan to pay the older loan with a higher term and higher interest rates.
Let’s say with the new loan of US$478 billion. This would be enough to pay the old debt of US$129 billion and an interest rate of 13.3%.
Leaving Ukraine with US$349 Billion to pay back. As of right now, Ukraine has a GDP of US$155.6 Billion which means also a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 224.29%.
At this point, there’s no going back.
If Ukraine fails to pay its debts, which in a situation like this most likely will.
The IMF will create a facade narrative for Ukraine. And will start to put in place neoliberal free trade policies. For example, removing tariffs and quotas, privatization and devaluation of the local currency.
This would make perfect weather for multinational countries to come in. And start the exploitation of Ukrainian natural resources.
They force the country to be a free trade raw materials export dependant economy.
Every country struggles to pay back its loans. It’s prescribed the same medicine to every single one of them. They all export cash crops such as cereals, oilseeds, and coffee.
With the fall in the price of crops. The country will need to export even more produce to stabilize its currency.
But they can’t.
So they’ll go back to IMF and ask for a new loan to pay off their debts and so the cycle continues.
Things get so bad that poor nations start to spend more money on debt payments than on their healthcare.
This outcome will lead to budget cuts, less consumption, and more unemployment. Which leads to social instability and cuts in wages.
The outcome will be investors fleeing an economic crisis.
Multinationals will take advantage of this to exploit natural resources for very cheap. They will undermine the sovereignty of the indigenous leadership. Foreign powers will host military bases and will install a puppet government.
Making Ukraine an American Neocolony.
My Final Verdict
We are at the end of this article, thank you for joining me on this journey. Writing this article has been anything but easy
This an article that the world needs to read.
This war is not a simple affair. And posting on the web #supportukraine, doesn’t do any justice for Ukraine.
It makes your action fake and you look like an imbecile in the process. It gives you a few hits of dopamine and makes you think that you’ve done anything important. But you’ve done nothing.
At this point in the war, it is difficult to support Russia, but this wasn’t the purpose of this article anyways.
I don’t believe that national security is a justification for an invasion. But I understand why they did it and I can’t blame them for that.
If the USA saw Canada and Mexico having a military alliance with Russia. They would’ve done the same thing.
In fact, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Bay of Pigs Invasion prove my point.
I made this article to expose American hypocrisy. The double standards that everybody accepts. Believing in ideas without thinking about them makes me feel sad. It reinforces the belief that we live in an echo chamber and the masses are puppets of the media.
If the news says something. Are we supposed to accept everything these reporters and analysts say as gospel? Isn’t this attitude like what happened to Nazi Germany? All those people following the propaganda of the Third Reich with blind eyes?
There’s no denying the fact that the war’s final outcome is unclear. I will not argue on that issue.
The purpose of this article is to discuss the invisible war that nobody talks about. The war that Ukraine will have to fight for decades to come. The war costs billions as well as rising unemployment and social instability.
This is the war that will cost them the most. The forgotten war that they already lost, unfortunately.
Do you agree with my stance on this issue? If you have an opinion please share it in the comments.
I know I wasn’t able to give a holistic approach to this complicated situation in this article, that’s why I have written a new article, discussing my position on Putin’s Russia:
https://medium.com/@jorge.rafael.assis.neves/putin-has-gone-nuts-777bfc150df0
(Ad Hominem Attacks Will Be Removed, I Am Only Interested In Thought Provoking Debates)
If you seriously care about helping Ukraine sign the following petitions, we can help them if we don’t tolerate the debt trap they entered:
This is the proper way to help Ukraine. Like what you’ve read? Please consider following me on Medium.
This is my final verdict on this situation.