I have read all your articles and I like your analysis, it’s one of the few bubble theories that’s reasonable and doesn’t make absurd comparisons like Tulipans, etc…
But I don’t quite agree with:
- Using total cap as market cap.
Certain percentages of tokens are locked and cannot be traded. The unlock of these tokens would drive price down. So you cannot measure market cap as if all the tokens were tradeable.
- Price of a cryptocurency is not accurate if the cryptocurrency is not used by the company (like RPX)
Does Microsoft need their company shares to run Windows? No, they don’t, it’s well demonstrated that a cryptocurrency/stock share is not valued by the number of transactions but by the technology/company that backs it.