- By 2030, gasoline use for cars will have dropped to near zero, and total crude oil use will have dropped by 30% compared to today.
Yeah, no way. That’s only 13 years away from. The average age of a car in the U.S. is 11.6 years and rising.(http://www.autonews.com/article/20161122/RETAIL05/161129973/average-age-of-vehicles-on-road-hits-11.6-years) Internal combustion engines are complicated, but we’ve gotten pretty good at making them. There will not be a mass adoption of EV until: 1. They are comparable in price to gasoline vehicles. 2. There are EV pickup trucks and SUVs, which are some of America’s most popular vehicles. Say that both of those existed right now people are still going to use what they are paying for or already own until it makes financial sense to buy a new vehicle. Additionally, we do not have the electricity infrastructure to shift such a massive energy burden to the grid. We will eventally, but it’s going to take a lot longer than that. Things can change and change fast, but they will not change this fast. And I’m fairly certain that gasoline will be around for the next 30 years at least.