Coronavirus — Outlook and Projections
Status of the Outbreak
Just over two weeks ago I wrote that there wasn’t enough data yet to say what the likely outcome of the virus would be. Last week I wrote that the outlook had worsened as more data from outside of mainland China became available — but that it was still early in the epidemic. Today, the four reported deaths in Iran (and the two exported international cases) makes it extremely likely that there are hundreds of cases in the country. The Iranian health ministry says that:
Based on existing reports, the spread of coronavirus started in Qom [and] has now reached several cities … including Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities and it’s possible that it exists in all cities in Iran. [emphasis added]
Combine that with the 17 cases and one death that have been reported today from Italy, and it is likely that the WHO criteria for a pandemic has already been met. It seems increasingly unlikely that the outbreak will be contained within China. Although we can still hope for that outcome.
Given the current spread of the outbreak it is worthwhile to try and project what a worldwide spread of the virus might look like.
Note — if you want to skip the explanation of how the inputs were calculated, just scroll down until you see the SIRD model with the projections for the United States.
