Why You *Should* Be Worried About the Coronavirus

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I keep seeing opinions saying that the CFR of the coronavirus is ~2% — and not to worry, that’s probably a higher end estimate because we’re missing lots of mild cases. I wish that were true, but let me explain why that simply not the case.‬ And why even if it was, you should still be tremendously concerned.

Hospitalization and ICU Rate

Firstly , let’s talk about the hospitalization rate. Every reputable source agrees that 10–20% of cases require hospitalization, and 5% require an IUC. Even if we stopped the whole discussion right here that would be enough info for tremendous concern. There is not anywhere *near* to that number of ICU beds or ventilators in the county. If this becomes widespread- which experts now agree it almost certainly will — at least 5% of people will need, ‬and largely be unable to get, significant medical care. Consider that right now 9% of Italian cases are in the ICU.

Let me quote from a 2006 NYT article talking about the shortage of ventilators for a hypothetical bird flu pandemic:‬

Right now, there are 105,000 ventilators, and even during a regular flu season, about 100,000 are in use… In a national emergency, he said, “it will come down to some really thin cuts on a scoring system.” “Families are going to be told, ‘We have to take your loved one off the ventilator even though, if we could keep him on it for a week, he might be fine,’ “ he went on. “How do you think that’s…