What Every Hillary Worshipper Misses: The 2:1 Factor
Everybody keeps saying how blacks would have stayed home for Bernie and that he had no chance because “you need the black vote”.
It is not as of blacks would choose Trump over Bernie. They just wouldnt come out in big numbers. Well they did not come out in big numbers for Hillary either. But, let’s assume they gave Hillary more support than they would have given Bernie, your analysis still is hopelessly flawed.
You know who came out in “yuge numbers”? The NeverHillary’s.
Very few people love Trump. They just hated Hillary more. Of Trump voters at least 15 percent and possibly 50 percent came out to stop the woman who has zero noteworthy accomplishments, waffles on every topic, never accepts accountability for her screw ups, and jumps from one scandal to another while becoming fabulously wealthy.
The 2:1 Factor
When Democrats lose one voter it is MUCH more damaging than one supporter staying home.
Start with a vote of 1000 people that is split 550 to 450 democrat over republican, so Democrats are starting with a margin of +100. If 10 percent of democrats stay home because they are “blacks who are unenthused about Bernie”, the democrat loses 55 votes and still wins 495-450.
BUT, if 10 percent cross over to vote against the Democrat because they perceive her as a corrupt,career politician who does not give a damn about anybody but herself, those 55 votes are gained by Trump and he wins 505–495. To regain that 100 point margin you need 110 voters to show up and vote for you.
The 2:1 Factor is that Hillary needed TWO EXTRA voters more than Bernie would have gotten to show up and vote Democrat to make up for every one voter she scared off from the blue ticket to red. Like most Hillary political projects, this failed.
Would Bernie have beaten Trump? To me it seems obvious, but there is no way to know for sure.
It does not seem like it should be that challenging trying to defeat one of the Top 5 Most Hated People in America. Unless your candidate is Top 3.