The Foreign Policy of a Madman

“I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.”
These words uttered by Richard Nixon would serve as the philosophical foundation of his administration’s foreign policy. Policy experts and historians accurately labelled and categorized this diplomatic strategy as “madman diplomacy.”
Madman diplomacy is the strategic appearance of being an irrational, reactionary, and unpredictable actor, which deters other actors from engaging out of fear of some drastic military action. In modern parlance, people will leave you alone or think twice before crossing you because “that dude be cray”.
We are seeing this diplomatic tactic unfold before our very eyes in the escalation of tensions between North Korea and the US. Two leaders, President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, are locked into a game of one-upmanship as to who is the maddest of them all — and it is a frightening and petrifying spectacle.
For decades, North Korea played the role of the madman by its lonesome. Ranging from assassination attempts against South Korean leaders and naval skirmishes in the Yellow Sea, North Korea has actively engaged in acts of terrorism against its neighbors, often times without provocation. Though a ceasefire occurred between the two sides of the 38th Parallel, North and South Korea are technically still at war since a formal peace treaty has never been signed or finalized.
But it’s precisely this history of combative behavior— albeit asymmetrical at best — that highlights its logical foundation. Though perceived as an irrational actor, North Korea is actually quite rational. North Korea doesn’t hold many cards when it comes to international leverage. It’s not an economic superpower. It doesn’t produce any highly valued commodity. It is entirely dependent upon its only political and economic regional ally, China. The only card that North Korea holds right now is the assumption that its leader, at any given moment, could detonate a nuclear weapon in an undisclosed and highly-populated area — because that’s exactly what a madman would do.
North Korea is the town drunk who routinely gets belligerent and makes a fool of himself. Though his shtick is predictable and his unanswered threats prove to be hollow, nobody in the community fully engages, because they fear he might be hiding a pistol. All it would take is a split second, knee-jerk reaction for tragedy to occur.
And for decades, this strategy has worked. It has kept this beleaguered excuse of a nation-state broadly marginalized and isolated from the international community. We are periodically reminded of this Cold War relic when a test missile is launched and falls into the Sea of Japan. Tense words are exchanged, some diplomatic action is taken, and the cycle begins again.
But that cycle was disrupted on November 7th. If Madman was a video game, Player Two entered the game on this day. President Trump, whether purposefully or accidentally, is perceived as an erratic, reactionary, and unpredictable actor, prone to snap judgement and bellicose rhetoric — in other words, a madman.
So can cooler heads prevail in battle of madness? Unfortunately, one side may have to prove that it is capable of doing more than just rhetorical shots across the bow.
Ultimately, engaging in madman diplomacy demonstrates a failure in leadership. We only validate this failed strategy by replicating it. North Korea behaves in such a manner because it has no other cards to play. Is the United States really on the same level as this petulant child of a country? If so, perhaps it is time for the adults in the room to take over and handle this situation before something tragic occurs.
