This is how Google will collapse
Daniel Colin James

While I agree that Google needs more than ads to survive forever, Google’s ad revenue in 2017 is expected to grow an additional 16%. 16% growth YoY and $28.6 billion in estimated 2017 revenue from search only, is hardly dying.

I also disagree with your comments on the Amazon Echo vs Google Home. The Echo works, but it’s a very simplistic voice command system, and if you don’t get the statement right, it can’t help you. Google Home on the other hand, actually understands you. You can ask it to do something a dozen different ways and it just gets it and makes it happen. Google is, by far, ahead of Amazon in AI, machine learning and speech recognition, and I feel will eventually take the lead in that space.

Google does have to contend with the Echo Dot being cheaper and Amazon being able to directly push it to people buying other things, so it’ll take a while before the market fully shifts to calling Google the winner here. Expect a lower cost device from Google in the next year — probably by releasing a new upgraded version at the current price point and dropping the price of the current offering to around $70 to take on the Dot.

My final thoughts are around AWS versus Google Cloud. While Amazon has a massive lead here, study after study shows Google actually has the better option when looking at pricing. Amazon does have quite a bit more options, and many of them lock you in, but most people entering the market for cloud services that do their research are going for Google Cloud. Microsoft has a pony in the race with Azure that’s doing well too.

If you look at Amazon's numbers, you’ll see that most of their growth is from existing customers, not new customers. Since they have such a huge lead from being in the market so much longer, that’s why they look like they’re beating everyone, but 10 years from now the picture will look very different with I believe Google Cloud and Azure taking a huge chunk of the market from them.

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