Please, America, do not follow us!
We’ve been hit hard by COVID-19 at Italy, Spain and the rest of Europe and I want you to learn from our mistakes. Our media calls “the curve” to the epidemic progression of Coronavirus. At Spain, they are telling us that the peak (top of the curve) has been passed, and that we are lifting the lockdown by May. After a month of mild lockdown people are tired of staying home and watching on TV news the sustained death rate of 800 daily.
While European media was mocking on Trump and Boris Johnson because they considered different approaches to this crisis with “Do Something” and “Do Nothing” strategies respectively:
https://elpais.com/internacional/2020-04-06/de-lo-tenemos-controlado-a-habra-muchas-muertes-la-cuarentena-mental-de-donald-trump.html
https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2020/04/06/nota/7806648/coronavirus-estados-unidos-cambio-radical-discurso-siempre
https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20200313/474112559284/reino-unido-impotente-coronavirus-prioridad-economia.html
our governments in Europe never doubted about what to do… they seemed to have it all perfectly tight together:
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-science-chief-resigns-over-disappointing-european-response-to-covid-19/
First thing to do when a pandemics is coming to your country should be forecasting a death toll on worst case scenario:
https://www.ft.com/content/9c82ac13-af2e-351a-8dea-670ff8885a8f
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8189181/Do-approach-tackle-coronavirus-epidemic-led-500-000-deaths.html
Now look for any forecast for Spain (47 million inhabitants):
Google => Spain half million death toll covid-19 => no results
Google => España medio millon de muertos covid-19 => no results
The same goes for France and Italy. Nobody has ever forecasted herd immunity outcome for Europe. Funny thing is Europe’s plan to tackle Coronavirus epidemic is precisely herd immunity, mitigation, flatten the curve, do nothing but don’t die all at the same time, please.
We know herd immunity for UK costs 500,000 deaths and 87 per cent of population being infected. We know it costs 3M, Trump’s “hell of a price”. But we don’t want to know it costs 6M to Europe. Maybe next year news headlines will tell us.
When a country venerate its elders, like in Korea, where they are highly respected,
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/what-other-cultures-can-teach_n_4834228
first priority is to stop virus propagation. Suppression program is about that, avoid population to get infected, period.
When countries don’t venerate them, and instead say that “Prolonged human life is … creating an array of social and financial problems for the continent.”
https://theconversation.com/europe-is-going-grey-can-eu-countries-work-together-to-care-for-their-elderly-80416
first priority is to prevent hospital collapse, slow down virus spread with a final outcome similar to a “do nothing” approach: mortality rate applied to 87% of population. Around 1% of people are going to die, and most of them are elders. Who benefits from that?
Korea COVID-19 fight strategy is Suppression, meaning avoiding herd immunity by infection. They took rapid, intrusive measures against Covid-19 and they worked. Figures say it all: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Why did not Europe apply suppression? That’s a good question, probably GDPR and other rights could make a questionable argument, but the thing is when you talk to Spain’s authorities about applying tracing, screening, strict quarantine and massive testing you got only two answers:
1.- Silence
2.- Don’t panic, bro, keep a positive emotional state
As headline of this post says, I am speaking to America, because I think there is political will to save lives.
When WHO warns Spain about taking measures to prevent virus spread on January 2020, they replied “Spain will not have, at most, beyond a few diagnosed case”.
When WHO warns the USA, Trump says: “They could’ve called it months earlier, they would’ve known. And they should’ve known. And they probably did know.”
https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-world-health-organization-83f971cf-9f09-46f3-9141-523c6bfff98d.html
https://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-trump-congela-financiacion-porque-equivoco-pandemia-202004080117_noticia.html
So, America, having the will we lack at Europe to fight the virus, please do not fall into our mistakes:
1.- Massive testing: Its imperative to test the whole population for several rounds. Start now or continue manufacturing billions of tests
2.- Face masks: Provide population with them, use them always to get out home
3.- Contact tracing: Figure out who a sick person caught an illness from, and who they’ve been in contact with while infectious.
4.- Screening: Deploy thermal cameras to screen crowded public spaces for people with elevated body temperature.
5.- Self-diagnosis: App to get certifications when registering body temperature. Privacy can be protected using seeds instead of identities.
6.- Strict quarantine: Positive cases should be confined alone, providing them with food and resources.
7.- Don’t lie to people: Spain real figures are among 2x to 15x official figures. They say 150,000 cases and we have around 3 million. They say 15,000 deaths and we have probably more than 30,000. They say things are getting better, but we have just achieved 6% of herd immunity, implying at least 435,000 more deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
8.- Don’t tell people to be ready to lift lockdown, when releasing them would imply multiplying by 30x the daily death toll.
Best wishes, America!
#coronavirus #covid19 #datascience #covidwarriors #frenarLaCurva #datanalytics #suppression #mitigation #YoDoyMisDatos
