Asiwaju Tinubu: The Beginning of The End

Before I even start, Let’s have some disclaimers.

I am still a very young person (<25) so the Historical texts you will be reading in this piece were all read in a book written by someone so don’t pounce on me and say I was wrong. I am still standing to be corrected.

Secondly, I am not a bastard and this is not meant to be derogatory in any sense to the achievements of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The title of this piece is just so you could click on it and maybe guide your thoughts about the topic. You can give this piece any topic you like.

Thirdly, I am not a PROPHET. So, if you are a blogger looking for some news about predictions of the “end” of the political juggernaut, you can open another web page now.

Having said all of this, It is evident that Asiwaju is currently facing some issues, not just nationally but right here in his home base where it was said was his ‘throne’ since he had control over every aspirant that emerged as winner in the polls.

The whole coalition and birth of APC was hinged on that one single fact that Asiwaju could deliver the South West in the 2015 elections — a feat that handed him the (un)ceremonial title of National Leader.

Some of us ( I am not trying to gloat here) said the occurrences that surrounded the election of National Assembly leaders was a root cause but on these streets, analysts said Asiwaju was a “black cobra that could strike anytime” and that the culprits who have through budget padding tales who have now truly shown to be pseudo-progressives should beware.

POWER is Fluid and Political Power is even more so.

As we speak, we know that the so called base of Asiwaju is no longer one he can claim as his. Whatever the outcome of the Ondo Elections, one thing is crystal clear. There are now stake holders who lay claim to a fraction of the base that Asiwaju once undisputedly claimed as his. (By claim, I don’t mean he went about shouting it was his). Whether this base was truly Asiwaju’s to control is another debate for another day.

Let’s go back some few years back.

Obafemi Awolowo, the Social Democrat and Philosopher who wanted political power at the centre so he could impose his social democracy idea to the whole country (maybe, Nigeria would have been better than this, maybe not) decided to partner with some other political relevant personalities for that agenda of his.

He also laid claim to the Wild Wild West as they called it soon after.

We know that the results didn’t go well and that the Action Group at the time split into two and never fully recovered.

We know that Ladoke Akintola’s NNDP had the support of the Northerners at the centre and through Federal might crushed the remaining edifices of what the Action Group could call a structure

We know that Awolowo’s absence and newly found irrelevance two full years before the 1965 Federal Election was a liability for the politicians who still paid allegiance to his ideas and were still loyal and for the purpose of survival had to find their square root

We also know that Awolowo, the erudite philosopher and politician never fully recovered from this experience, losing his hold on the remaining fraction of loyalty in the Western Election that then served as the solid foundation to the January 1966 coup which then almost luckily saved his life.

You can compare yourself and see whether these events seem as though they were re-written for different personalities but I’ll step aside at this point on the comparison.

I have never been a fan of seeing History repeat itself and seeing that Asiwaju, who himself is an erudite politician is most likely very much aware of this Historical precedents, it becomes ironical that the rapid dissolution of all the territories that was once Asiwaju’s claim is taking place before our very own eyes.

My original thought was that Tinubu’s legacy was never tied to an idea like Awolowo’s Awoism was tied to Social Democracy but tied to his person since loyalty to an idea usually lasts longer. But scrap that! Awolowo is till date the most forward thinking, philosophical politician that Nigeria has ever had and that still happened to him. ( I reserve the right to give this award to anyone i like in my own world)

We will all learn our lessons from this. I am sure Asiwaju will do too.

To however think that this is just some surface injury at the “Bourdillon Empire” is nothing but an attempt to deceive one’s self. I like to think even Asiwaju himself will not indulge in that.

Is this the beginning of the end for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu? It might!

If you have any issues with my History, I can’t consult my tutor, the Late Sir Olaniwun Ajayi, but I’ll try to do him proud. Buzz me on Twitter: @JudeFeranmi