NFL Week 9 Picks
Get ready for another lousy week of matchups!

Home team in CAPS.
JAGUARS (+1.5) over Texans (LONDON)
Can we just leave Londoners alone? They don’t need this. There’s already enough bad press on half-empty stadiums. Just look at pictures from last week’s London game — not to mention the Falcons, Titans, Colts, and Jaguars games. Attendance problems shouldn’t come as a surprise — every team in the NFL had an average ticket price above $100 in 2018. The Bills had the lowest price at $107, while the Patriots were number one, with their average tickets costing more than $500. This has to be very worrisome to those poor NFL owners. Just like the struggling dinosaur theme park in Jurassic World, tablets, phones, 80-inch 4k tv’s, etc., have taken the luster out of the spectacle. And it’s going to take a lot more than the Jaguars’ mascot-taunting Sam Darnold dressing up as a ghost while the PA system blasts the Ghostbusters theme song for run-of-the-mill franchises to get people to spend so much for three hours of Matt Schaub.
Adding to this, Bill O’Brien is a bad coach — the Texans lead the NFL in pre-snap penalties (don’t worry, Browns fans, Freddie Got Fired’s doing all he can to change this) with Laremy Tunsil leading in false starts. To make matters worse, JJ Watt being out for the year hurts a lot, like it always does. Hey Bill — perhaps you shouldn’t play an injury-prone great like Watt on every possession. You mortgaged your draft capital to win it all this year — yet you didn’t think to lessen the load on your best defender? *Randy Moss voice* “C’MON MAN!!!”
Leonard Fournette is tied for first place in yards after contact per attempt (3.8). Look for him to shred the Texans. Speaking of shredding, the Texans’ secondary is ravaged with injury. I’ll take the Jags in a mild upset and hope that Farrah Abraham offering Gardner Minshew to do porn won’t ruin his rookie season, like a trashy, perverted Tony Romo-Jessica Simpson ordeal.
BIZARRE* BILLS (-9.5) over Redskins
The Bills’ loss to the Eagles last week made me wonder even more if their 5–2 record is a fluke; nevertheless, #BillsMafia, you’ll be 6–2 after this one. The Redskins have scored a pathetic 36 points over their last five games, the fewest by any NFL team over a five-game span since the 2011 Scott Piolis (I refuse to even call that team the Chiefs, that’s how bad they were).
*This is a really bizarre Bills team. A few examples:
— John Brown is on track to be the first Bills receiver with over 1,000 yards in a season since 2002.
— The Bills defense is 3rd best in the league in points against.
— 40 percent of Josh Allen’s throws 10 yards or more are uncatchable, according to Pro Football Focus. (He has a worse passer rating than Jameis Winston and Mitch Trubisky.)
— Buffalo has outscored opponents 57–31 in the 4th quarter, the fourth-best differential in the NFL.
— Frank Gore is still really good at the age of 61.
Why will the Redskins lose? Uh…

Vikings (No line as of Friday) over CHIEFS
This one’s tough. As of this writing, Andy Reid’s currently doing what he did last week and pussyfooting around about whether Pat Mahomes will play. I don’t blame him, unless he’s serious about Mahomes possibly playing. Jeopardizing the long-term health of the franchise savior (hell, maybe even the NFL’s savior) would be a disaster. Nevertheless, Matt Moore has looked surprisingly good against the Broncos and Packers the last two weeks — but..
Key number of the game — 100. No, that’s not Andy Reid’s IQ, though his clock management skills sometimes make it seem so. The Vikings are undefeated since the start of last season when Kirk Cousins has a passer rating over 100. And they’re 0–6 when it drops to double digits. Well, that’s extremely bad news for the Chiefs, as Cousins has a 137.1 passer rating in the last four games — the highest rating by a Vikings quarterback over a four-game span in franchise history. During this span, Cousins has a 10–1 TD pass to interception ratio. In other words, I wouldn’t bet on the Chiefs this week. Maybe if Mahomes were guaranteed to play, but that will only happen if, indeed, Andy has an IQ less than 100.
SEX ROBOTS (DOLPHINS)* (+3) over Jets
Throw stats out the window on this one. Not that this matchup is worth my begrudgingly looking up the stats for two dog crap teams. Whoever wins this game actually loses by being less likely to secure the top draft pick**. After Le’Veon Bell, Robbie Anderson, and most importantly, Jamal Adams, were almost traded at the deadline on Tuesday, this one really comes down to whether the Jets players are in F U Mode or F This Mode. Judging by Adams’ displays of contempt this week, particularly, stating the GM went behind his back, I’ll roll with the Dolphins and reckon the Jets to be in F This Mode.
“The Rams don’t take calls on Aaron Donald. The Patriots don’t take calls on Tom Brady.” Yes, Jamal, but you’re not either of them. You’re a safety. A really good one. But it’s going to take a hell of a lot more than your being a perennial All-Pro for the Jets to ever become good (is that even possible in the next two decades?). That being said, I found it quite idiotic for the Jets to shop Adams around. I don’t use literally very often, but he’s LITERALLY the only elite player on their entire roster right now. Who else is there? Bell? He’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Openly attempting to get rid of a player of Adams’ caliber just reinforces how pathetically run the Jets are.
*I’m calling Dolphins the Sex Robots until they win another game. Why? They were designed to suck***.
**Which reminds me of how infuriated I was when Joe Tessitore, during the Dolphins-Steelers game on Monday night, commented that Dolphins fans don’t want to see Xavien Howard on the sideline unable to play. Uh, the smart ones do! It’s called tanking, Joe — for the higher draft pick, Joe. Why would a Dolphins fan want to be 1–6 instead of 0–7, Joe? At this point, we’re just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic — which is exactly what this Jets-Dolphins game is all about. More on Joe T later.
***You could make the case that all of Adam Gase’s teams have been designed to suck. His teams are statistically more likely to lose by double digits than win. What a great hire!
****This asterisk doesn’t link back to anything. I just wanted to set a personal record for most asterisks used.
EAGLES (-5) over Bears
Leave it to the Bears and Matt Nagy to create an NFL kneeling controversy that has nothing to do with Colin Kaepernick. Taking a knee before a field goal attempt was one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen. I know Chicago doesn’t exactly have a powerful rushing attack (they miss Jordan Howard — whom they traded to the Eagles!), but as Herm Edwards used to say, “You play to win the game,” — and that means fighting for a few extra yards in hopes of breaking the Bears’ kicking curse. I don’t care who fights for it. Someone has to. Even Tarik Cohen, even though he’s 4’1. Now, barring a miracle, the Bears are out of contention, wasting a year with a scary defense, and you know the Eagles can smell blood. Not just the Bears’ blood, but their own. The #BirdGang was written off just a week ago after embarrassing themselves against the Cowboys and releasing Orlando Scandrick (to go on every sports show in the country, snitching and talking trash about his former teammates). The Eagles are just one game behind Dallas in the NFC East, and both teams are so erratic that anything could happen. Would it surprise you if the Eagles beat the Bears by 25? Would it surprise you if they lost by 25? All I know is that Mitch Truisky is universally hated by everyone in Chicago and it’s hilarious. But the real problem is Nagy. He’s not utilizing Mitch correctly and is trying to make him play like a pocket passer. Mitch is athletic — isn’t that why you drafted him? But, for some reason, Nagy has gone more conservative than Ted Nugent at a C-Pac convention — and you know he’d be against taking a knee. Unless — [JOKE REDACTED BY EDITOR].
STEELERS (+1) over Colts
I still don’t fully trust this Colts team. I always want to, but being behind 13–12 against the Broncos last Sunday with two minutes left rubbed me the wrong way. What’s worse? The fact that all seven Colts games this season have been decided by 7 or fewer points. There are only four other teams with longer streaks in NFL history; thus, the Colts could very easily be 2–5 instead of 5–2. You know what? I’ll take the Steelers. Their defense is, of course, really good, and Mason Rudolph is the third player in NFL history to throw more touchdown passes than interceptions in each of his first five games.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Titans
The Panthers sure did embarrass themselves against the 49ers on Sunday, but I expect them to bounce back against Tennessee. My new favorite pastime: watching motivational speeches by NFL players after their team has lost the game. Gerald McCoy was speaking from the heart about how the 49ers were overrated — and then his defense gave up 51 points. I guarantee you the Titans won’t put up 51 points — they average just 18.5 per game (26th best) and rank 27th in yards per game.
One, Two, Three like The Jackson 5:
Even after giving up 51, the Panthers D is first in the league in sacks (30!) and second in interceptions. They’re also third in the league in time of possession and will slowly ground and pound the hell out of people.

Browns (-4) over BRONCOS
Just who is Freddie Kitchens? Is it possible he’s some random wing-gorging football fan at Buffalo Wild Wings who got teleported by the machine in Happy Death Day 2U into an alternate dimension where he became a head coach?
Okay, I just googled him and it turns out he was a quarterback at Alabama in the 90s…allegedly. I don’t see how he was.

This Browns team is nothing short of a disaster based on the (media) expectations they had coming into the year. Cleveland had three consecutive turnovers against the Patriots, which is only the seventh time that’s happened to any team since 2000. In fact, below is harsh reality that will make the toughest of the Dawg Pound want to be euthanized. *Hank Williams Jr. voice* “ARE YA READY FOR SOME DEPRESSIOOOOOOOOOON!?!?!?”
Compared to one year ago with Hugh Jackson as coach, the Browns have…
-a worse record
-fewer passing yards
-fewer passing TD’s
-fewer rushing yards
-fewer points scored
-fewer defensive interceptions
-a lower 3rd down conversion percentage
-more interceptions thrown
-more points allowed
-more TD passes allowed
-more rushing yards allowed
-more offensive turnovers
-more team penalties

Nevertheless, I’ll take the Browns over the Broncos simply because Denver has their own plethora of problems, i.e., the starting quarterback (who won’t even be playing this week) publicly calling out the coaching staff, rightfully so, for being too conservative to have a chance to win. In fact, Emmanuel Sanders criticized the coaching a few weeks ago and ended up on another team. Joe Flacco criticized the coaching on Sunday and is now out with a “neck injury.” Is Vic Fangio in the mob? Is he doing dirty work on rats in the locker room? “Flacco — you’re my older brother, and I love you. But don’t ever take sides with anyone against the Family again. Ever*.”
*That’s a Godfather reference, for those of you who are uncultured.
SEAHAWKS (-5) over Buccaneers
I’m still so embarrassed I picked the Bucs last week that I haven’t been able to look at myself in the mirror ever since. Jameis Winston only had four turnovers, which is a decent performance by his standards. Losing Justin Britt with a knee injury will be tough, but at this point, Russell Wilson is used to not having any protection — it’s like off-the-field Philip Rivers is Wilson on the field! Seattle only scoring three points in the second half against the Falcons last week scares me — but the Hawks were probably just ready to fly home after having to watch Matt Schaub’s corpse fill in for Matt Ryan.
Packers (-3.5) over CHARGERS
How is the line not higher? Does Vegas really think a two-hour time zone change is going to slow down Aaron “Bad Man” Rodgers? Did they forget that 97 percent of the crowd will be Packers fans? Did they not see that Philip Rivers grew a mustache this week? Give it up, Minshew’s the future. You’re an almost-has-been with 70,000 kids. The last four Chargers games have been decided by seven points or fewer. With the way Rodgers is playing, they’ll be lucky if they can make that five. Rodgers’ 152.0 passer rating in the last two games (734 yards, 8 TD’s, no picks, 75 percent completion) is the fourth highest by any QB in a two-game span since 1990. Meanwhile, Rivers’ twelve touchdown passes in the last eight games are the fewest he’s thrown in that time frame since 2012.
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Lions
I’m gonna throw stats out the window on this one. Both these teams hate me. Whenever I pick the Raiders, they lose. Whenever I pick the Lions, they lose. It doesn’t help that both these teams are evenly matched with good offenses and semi-crappy defenses that don’t have good enough personnel to execute their respective schemes. You could really flip a coin on who will win this one. Also, Oakland would only be a 1/2 game out of first place in the AFC West if they win and the Chiefs lose to the Vikings.
Patriots (-3) over RAVENS (Sunday Night Football)
This has the potential to be one for the ages — okay, maybe not ages. But it might end up being one of the most entertaining games of the year. I’ll take the Pats due to their historic defense — they’re the only team since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in points allowed, takeaways, and sacks through Week 8. Likewise, the Ravens are making their own history. Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback in NFL history to pass for 1,600 yards and rush for 500 yards through the first seven games of a season. I’ll take the Pats simply because they’re the Pats and I don’t see the Ravens’ offense being experienced enough to overcome a defense that currently ranks better than the ’85 Bears*.
An old curmudgeon like Belichick would never allow the Patriots to do a 2020 version of the Super Bowl Shuffle. Can you imagine how lame their Super Bowl dance would be? It’d be Tom Brady ballroom dancing while Bill Belichick scowls with a hint of lust.

Cowboys (-7) over GIANTS (Monday Night Football)
You and I both know that Jerehhhh was highly considering sending two first round picks to the Jets for Jamal Adams on Tuesday. I’ll bet Stephen Jones had to tackle his daddy (think Robin Williams and Pierce Brosnan in a restaurant in Mrs. Doubtfire), to stop the demented owner from mortgaging the team’s future for a safety — kind of like when Stephen stopped Jerehhhh from drafting Johnny Manziel in 2014.

I really don’t want to go with the Boys here after they lost in week 6 to New York’s other pathetically run organization. Nevertheless, Dallas is coming off a bye and it would be a catastrophe beyond comprehension for them to lose to the Giants — though I really wouldn’t be surprised if that were to happen.
I’m really starting to get tired of Booger and Joe T on Monday Night Football. I really hope both of them get canned after the season. An actual quote from Booger concerning Miami’s draft pick haul — “The real issue is who do you pick with those picks?” No s**t! *Hokey Pokey voice* THAT’S WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT!!!
Joe T annoys me even more than Booger does. HE GETS SO FAKE EXCITED LIKE I’M DOING RIGHT NOW whenever any play that’s mildly interesting is executed properly. Does he apply this false enthusiasm to all aspects of his life?
HE’S SHREDDING PARMESAN ON MY SALAD!!! LOOK AT THAT CHEESE CRUMBLE AND FALL!!!!!!!!!!
THE COUPON’S GOOD!!! 25% OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOK AT THE VALET PULL UP CURBSIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOT A SINGLE SCRATCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT WAS EXECUTED BEAUTIFULLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bye Bye Byes
BENGALS
In case you needed a reminder of how classless the Bengals organization is, they announced this week that Andy Dalton lost his starting job…on his birthday. This is the worst birthday-related thing to happen to the Bengals since most of their players were born.
FALCONS
Who cares?
RAMS
The good news for Rams fans*: The Rams have given up the second fewest number of “explosive plays” this season. Whatever that means.
The bad news for Rams fans*: If the playoffs started right now, you wouldn’t even make it.
1 Seed: 49ers
2 Seed: Saints
3 Seed: Packers
4 Seed: Cowboys
Wild Card 1: Seahawks
Wild Card 2: Vikings
To be fair, let’s look at the AFC, even though it has nothing to do with the Rams.
1 Seed: Patriots
2 Seed: Colts
3 Seed: Ravens
4 Seed: Chiefs
Wild Card 1: Bills
Wild Card 2: Texans
*Not that many true ones exist.
SAINTS
Word on the street is that quite a few teams will be interested in paying Teddy Bridgewater $20–30 million a year when he hits free agency in March. I find this just a little absurd* considering the Saints have been winning largely due to their imposing defense; not to mention, Teddy’s currently being led by an offensive genius in Sean Payton and gets to throw to a stud** (Michael Thomas).
*I mean, it’s kind of absurd anyone could make that much to throw a ball around, but that’s the world we live in.
**I hate that word. I’m not sure why. Maybe because I got tired of being called “Jud the Stud” for decades.
Have a good weekend.
