Good analysis.

I had been pondering looking at how MPs personally would have liked to vote, versus their constituencies, versus their majorities. So in the safest of seats it might be ok to go with your conscience and against the electorate because they would still vote for you. In unsafe seats an MPs best strategy for being re-elected is to go with what the local people want.

So ignoring views on how to behave after a referendum (not least because I don’t think this information is widely recorded for most MPs), can we work out how far down the “unsafe seat” list you have to go to get a majority to vote against Article 50, if a vote is in fact ever called.

Obviously there are some interesting exceptions — the SNP are likely to vote down a call for A50. I assume the DUP would too, since suddenly a United Ireland looks tempting. But the same sort of analysis you did above would seem plausible.