Covid Changes Everything.

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Audible has a fascinating course on the history of the bubonic plague that would make for a bit of light listening while you’re sitting at home wondering if this is the end of the world. Spoiler: it’s not.

A ton of things are going to change in business over the next 2 to 3 years. This isn’t going to be over quickly, but we will adapt, and some will adapt much quicker than others.

The Bubonic plague lasted for several hundred years. Modern healthcare was non-existent, and every 10 to 50 years, the plague would cycle through a city and decimate the population. Eventually, enough of the population developed immunity to the plague so it stopped spreading so quickly. We now have antibiotics that kill the plague bacteria, and almost no one dies from the plague anymore.

What changed after the plague? Everything. The Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the emergence of the middle class were some of the direct results. Human beings, instead of being seen as disposable serfs were seen as valuable. Kings and royalty became less powerful, a global middle class started to emerge, and human beings started saying things like they had inalienable rights.

Democracy was reborn as a distant consequence of the plague.

Covid is a virus that no one has developed immunity to yet, so it’s extremely contagious. And, while we don’t understand it very well, we do know a couple of things very clearly:

• It spreads quickly when people are in close contact
• Anywhere from 1 out of 50 to 1 out of 200 people develop severe enough breathing problems from it that they require oxygen or artificial ventilation (life support)
• We don’t have antibiotics to kill the virus
• It’s going to take 12 to 18 months to mass-produce a vaccine to prevent the rapid spread

So, What does that mean? How are things going to change in the future?

Social distancing is going to be around for a while. Schools, churches, sports gatherings, concerts, workplaces, etc… Anywhere large groups of people gather are going to be disrupted for a while. If a couple of people in a large gathering are infected, they will spread it. So, we’re discouraging groups of people meeting.

This isn’t going to be over until massive amounts of people are able to develop immunity via vaccines (at least 18 months) or we discover that some of our existing antiviral medications are able to kill the virus, which is doubtful since we’re terrible at killing viruses like the common cold or influenza.

If anything in business can move online, it will have to

Digitally native and distributed companies are going to have a much easier time than traditional businesses and will rebound much faster. Those comfortable doing things digitally vs doing them in person will win.

I’ve seen this evolve very quickly in Silicon Valley over the past two weeks. Meetings are being done via video conferencing or telephone rather than face to face. Remote work is going to be heavily encouraged or mandatory for the next year or two until vaccination is widespread.

E-commerce and delivery services win over physical retail. I hate going to the grocery store, and I usually use Amazon or Walmart grocery delivery whenever possible. I’m a compulsive food delivery service user; Uber Eats, DoorDash and GrubHub are my friends, and they will be your friends soon, I imagine.

Schools, normally a hotbed of flu, cold and disease transmission are going to be disrupted. The move towards distance education will be rapid and very bumpy. People will watch a lot more Netflix and play a lot more video games. And on and on and on, the transformation to digital business and life accelerates.

This transition is going to be very painful and disruptive. It’s going to be hard. But, every decade or so, society faces an enormous challenge like this, and somehow we get through it.

We’re enormously resilient as a species and have a massive capability to adapt and change. As difficult as this will be, we will get through it.

As much as I spend most of my life online, my hope is that we will start to see physical human interaction as precious and special. Because it is.

Cherish your family and friends. Savor the time that you can spend with them in person.

If you or your family get sick, remember the overwhelming burden that your health care providers are under. Be kind to them.

And, please, for the love of God. Wash your hands, and cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze. :).