Saving the Birds: How The Orioles Can Sell in 2017 and Still (Maybe) Contend

Baltimore’s unexpectedly severe woes during the first half of this season call for an unconventional solution.

Julian Baron
Jul 10, 2017 · 6 min read

It’s easy to give up on a team (or anything, for that matter) that continuously breaks your heart. Time and time again over the past three months, the Orioles have shown glimmers of excellence just in time to be trounced by the harsh reality that their pitching staff is subpar, at best. Pair that with the fact that the team’s star third baseman Manny Machado is batting to the tune of a .228 average going into the All-Star Break, and you’ve got yourself a one-way ticket to the bottom of the AL East standings. But has the time really come to dismantle the Baltimore Orioles that have been in contention every season for the past five years, including three playoff appearances? No. At least, not yet.

Before anyone misjudges me as being an illogically optimistic fan, let me be very clear about where I stand. After the Orioles’ deplorable performance in Milwaukee, I was ready to call it a season and support shipping a handful of players to contenders without hoping for a playoff appearance. But the recent series in Minnesota reminded me something very important: the core of this team is very talented and can still contend, but only with the right supporting cast. The Baltimore Orioles as they are now cannot survive the brutal chase for a postseason berth, mainly due to the inexcusably inadequate starting rotation. But instead of squeezing the last bit of value out of our farm system and gifting it to another team, let’s handle our assets a little bit differently than years past while still keeping the goal of a world championship in mind.

Step 1: Trade Zach Britton to a Contender
For a team that wants to make a run at the Commissioner’s Trophy, this may seem like a bizarre move, and that’s because it is. But the fact of the matter is that while Orioles fans want the team to win now, we must also look to the future and consider two key realities. Firstly, the chances of the Orioles resigning Zach Britton are slim to none considering Baltimore’s payroll is already surprisingly high for a small market ball club. When you factor in that Manny Machado also needs a new contract and that he would almost surely take priority over Britton, it becomes evident that Britton is the Orioles’ prime candidate to be rented out. Now consider that Zach Britton still has another year of arbitration after the current season and you’ve got yourself a massive prospect payday waiting. One contending team the Orioles could trade Britton to plays an hour south of Baltimore in Washington D.C. With Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley facing injury problems and sporting high ERAs, Britton could be just what the Nationals need to put their reputation of playoff failure behind them.

Step 2: Convert Kevin Gausman into a Closer
The parallels between Kevin Gausman and Zach Britton are striking, to say the least. Each have had major inconsistencies as starting pitchers, and while both are capable of throwing hard and dominating in spurts, the ability to cruise through innings just hasn’t been there for either one. There’s no doubting that Gausman has been noticeably better overall as a starter than Britton was, but regardless, neither has reached the level of success necessary to survive in a Major League rotation. Over the course of his three full seasons as a starter, Gausman has posted an acceptable WAR value (at least 2 WAR) only once, and will likely fail to do so this year. With Britton on the trade train under this plan, Gausman serves as the perfect candidate to take his spot. He may not throw the intimidating power sinker that Britton has become so infamous for, but anyone who can consistently flirt with one-hundred miles per hour on the speed gun and has a diverse pitching arsenal has the physical attributes needed to close games. The biggest question is whether or not Gausman is mentally capable of handling the pressure of being a closer, and the only way to find that out is to send him out of the bullpen during the ninth inning in a close game. But the simple fact is that the formula of turning an inadequate but talented starter into a closer has worked for the Orioles before, so why not try again?

Step 3: Call up prospect Tanner Scott to replace Kevin Gausman
Let’s face it: the Orioles simply don’t have enough prospects to trade for a frontline starter at the deadline. Even if they did, the organization needs to think about the team’s future, and further draining the farm system would only make the Orioles’ future rebuild longer and more painful. Thus, Dan Duquette needs to look inward for a solution to the team’s recent pitching hardships rather than outward. The pitching options in the Orioles’ farm system are limited, but the minor league pitcher who has stood out more than anyone else this year is undoubtedly Bowie’s Tanner Scott. Is he ready for the big leagues? Who knows. But here’s what we do know. In 49IP this season, Scott has allowed a mere ten earned runs. He’s also started 17 games since the Baysox began their 2017 campaign and holds a 1.84 ERA over that span, culminating into an appearance in the Futures Game. Those stats don’t prove long-term dominance, but they do offer hope, which is exactly what the Orioles need right now. With Gausman relegated to the bullpen, Scott will have an opportunity to step into the starting rotation and change things up a bit. Success with Tanner Scott as a starter is far from guaranteed, but considering the fact that Gausman has allowed more earned runs so far this year than he did during the wholes of 2014 and 2015, something must be changed.

Step 4: Save Chance Sisco for when Wellington Castillo leaves Baltimore
It already feels a bit hasty to recall Tanner Scott from Bowie after a half season of success, but the Orioles’ pitching staff is what needs the most help right now. Baltimore has two very capable catchers in Wellington Castillo and his alternate Caleb Jospeh, meaning that top prospect Chance Sisco should remain in the minors to continue development until he is truly needed. Castillo is batting at a .258 clip, which ranks 4th on the Orioles as of the midseason mark. Whether this is a testament to Castillo’s success or the Orioles’ lack thereof is debatable, but there’s certainly no debating that a respectable amount of production is coming from the catcher position. With that said, perhaps Sisco will get an opportunity in the majors when September rolls arounds, but for right now, let’s leave the panic button un-pushed. What the Orioles need most for increased offensive production are more long balls from power hitters Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis (when he returns from injury) and more overall hitting from Manny Machado. And, of course, those are changes that Orioles fans, coaches, and executives alike will simply have to sit back and hope for. But this hope isn’t blind, as each one of the above players has proven his capabilities and has underproduced considerably this season.

Lastly, let’s not forget that the American League is having just as much of a down year as the Orioles are. Of course there are exceptions like the Houston Astros and, well… the Houston Astros, but a Wild Card berth is still fully attainable for Baltimore. The Orioles aren’t like the Marlins, who share a nearly identical winning percentage to the Birds but are ten and a half games out of their division and nine games out of the second NL Wild Card spot. The Orioles are a mere four games back in the AL Wild Card race, and while there are a plethora of teams also fighting to enter the postseason via the one game playoff, that isn’t a reason to throw in the towel. Even the AL East is comparatively weak, featuring a Yankees ball club that has struggled as of late, an overachieving Rays team, and the Boston Red Sox, who only recently took the top spot in the division. While the Orioles’ best shot at the postseason is via a Wild Card spot, acting like the division is a lost cause would be foolish, especially considering some of the runaways in divisions like the NL East and AL West.

So here’s the plan, Orioles fans. Let’s sell. But let’s not sell our hopes of a world championship for a bundle of prospects that may or may not pan out. Let’s trade a bit to hopefully help the team’s future, hold onto the core, make a few tweaks to the roster, and give the American League a run for its money in the second half. Orioles fans know better than anyone what it’s like to be truly out of contention (thanks to a decade of irrelevance), so let’s stop acting like it’s 2007 and start reminding ourselves that it’s 2017.

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