It’s easy to to steal and improve someone else’s work, basically because they did most of the work for you. So I don’t give Instagram too much credit because eventually Snapchat should respond.
I also won’t place too much emphasis on Snapchat’s slow growth during the period Instagram launched it’s version. Instagram’s snapchat copy has a huge rise, but that was a foregone conclusion. You can’t read too much into that because it wasn’t organic. That matters. Anything launched from Facebook is already going to have 200 million users trying it out because they’re pretty much already signed up for it already.
But Snaps launching its IPO isn’t because they want to focus even harder on Snapchat. It’s likely the opposite. They want to expand beyond it, and I think Spectacles is a tiny glimpse of their ambitions beyond Snapchat. So the real question is not whether Snapchat can survive, it’s what Snap’s plans are to leverage their user base. And that question is just unknown right now.
However, the convoluted interface of Snapchat is a big deal. People get tired of convolution. Though that doesn’t really stop Facebook’s success, whose search function is disfunctional.