The easiest, most comprehensive guide to univariate forecasting using AR, MA, ARIMA, and SARIMA. — Forecasting may be a daunting challenge, especially to those with only a few or no backrgound in statistics. But I think it is much easier that people think it is. In this article, I will go through the basic univariate forecasting models and forecast a variable with relative ease. The Basic Models There…

Forecasting can be quite daunting, especially given the knowledge required to be able to identify forecasting strategies which may involve heavy concepts with a rigorous mathematical underpinning. Fortunately, the bright devs over at Facebook developed a simple forecasting library called Prophet which makes even a forecasting newbie look like a…