Did Russians Hack the Election? The Data says No.
The same political experts who told us that Trump would never become President have now concluded that Russia has essentially staged a coup and “hacked” our election. No, and here’s why.
The data tells a different story which is pretty straight forward: Donald Trump performed exceptionally well in the Democrats’ own back yard and Hillary Clinton failed to mobilize the cadre of voters who gave Obama eight years in office.
For the conspiracy theory be validated the two key “hacks” of the election, the hacked emails release by Wikileaks in July 2016 and the subsequent leaks in October, would have to had influenced the entire range of events leading up to November.
In Pennsylvania, for example, Trump received 2,970,733 and Hillary received 2,926,441 votes. The margin was 44,292 votes.
Is it conceivable that Russia, hacking into our institutions, publishing information, and wreaking havoc through fake news sites could swing the election by 44,000 votes to Donald Trump? No, and here’s the data to show why.
Elections do not occur in a vacuum and you must examine them in the light of previous elections to understand the existing support and trajectory of a political party.
How did Trump v. Hillary perform compared Romney v. Obama?
Trump received 290,299 more votes that Governor Romney. Hillary received 63,000 fewer votes than President Obama.
If you combine the 3 key battleground states: PA, WI and MI Donald Trump brought in 455,307 more votes that Romney. Hillary Clinton on the other hand (wait for it) received nearly 600,000 fewer votes than Obama in 2012.
That’s a lot of people that Russian agents must have bribed with Facebook shares to change the election outcome.
On November 4th I declared that Trump was going to win the election based on Gallup’s voter registration polls and one other key data set: Pennsylvania party registrations.
You see, Pennsylvania is one of the few states that tracks not only party registrations but also how many people moved from one party to another.
The Department of state shows over 88,000 Democrats switched their affiliation to Republican in 2016 Only 33,000 Republicans have gone in the opposite direction. All together 103,000 voters have switched from the two core parties to third parties or unaffiliated status.
75% of all of those registrations happened, wait for it… before the primary elections in April.
That’s right. Before Russian agents convinced Donna Brazille to leak debate questions to the Clinton campaign; before Kremlin spies posed as underage hotties to derail Anthony Weiner and months before Vladimir Putin personally disguised himself as a plumber to fix Hillary’s email server and hack into the DNC… Pennsylvania voters had already decided that Trump, through all of his failings, better reflected the issues they cared most about.