FOREX: TRADE CHF/JPY
June 18, 2022 (approximately 8pm CST)
QUICK INTRO
If you have been following me at all, you should know that I typically write about cryptocurrencies. My last report was about Cartesi (CTSI). If you missed it, you can catch it here: https://medium.com/@k_warrior/polygon-pocketbook-report-trade-cartesi-cbf155b48a42
Also, you should know that the crypto market has been blood red and continuing to bleed at a voluminous rate. You can make money in a bloody market. You must research and find the platforms where you can short the market.
If you remember my very first article, I explained that I started off with forex trading; so I’m going to be focusing on that in this report and the next few reports. I am still trading crypto but I’ve added forex back to my trading arsenal.
WHY FOREX TALK?
Forex has been my first trading love. I am back with a trading group and have improved some trading techniques. Why not share what I am looking at and you can research and look at it too? A trade is a trade. Analyze your market and make solid trading decisions based on what you see. There is lots of good money to be made with forex which you can use to invest in crypto and stock markets while it is at a bottom. Always remember — what goes up, must come down. BUT also, what goes down, must come back up. It’s a law. I think relativity or gravity or hell, it may even be the law of attraction. I forgot what law it is but you can look it up on google (or presearch which I talk about at the end)….I’m not trying to teach any laws today…
So I digress…
WHAT IS FOREX?
Forex is simply trading one currency pair against another. For example, EUR/USD is trading the Euro against the US Dollar. The first currency is the base currency and the 2nd is the quote. So when you see this, you can say how much US dollars (quote)would equal 1 Euro Dollar (base currency)? It doesn’t matter what pair it is, it always works the same way. If it’s USD/JPY. How many JPY (yens) would equal $1.00 or 1 USD. Don’t overcomplicate things. It doesn’t have to be USD pairs either. There are many pairs but the base and the quote is always the same.
Now going back to the EUR/USD or EU example above. Currently, EUR/USD is $1.04933 (there are many other numbers behind the decimal…it is called pips) I will not give a pip lesson here, but basically it roughly costs almost $1.05 to get 1 Euro Dollar. For EU, whenever price is up on the charts, it means the Euro Dollar has increased in value and it will take more of your US money to buy 1 EURO. If price decreases and you see EUR/USD is 95 cents ($0.95), you’ll know the dollar is stronger than the Euro dollar at that time and you will get more Euro dollars for your US dollars. Whew, that’s a tongue twister. Babypips.com is a great site to explore more and start trading forex. It’s free and I highly encourage you to visit and go through the trainings if this is something that interests you because I will not be teaching it.
Similar to how I did with the Polygon Pocketbook Reports, you can look forward to me discussing one pair I’m researching and looking at in each and every report.
So without further ado…
WHAT PAIR(S) ARE WE LOOKING AT EXACTLY?
Last week, I traded the Aussie Dollar (AUD) and my personal favorite Swiss Franc (CHF) pairs. It was a wild ride for AUD and CHF. I did a buy on AUDUSD on June 15, 2022 and a sell on AUDCHF on Friday, June 17, 2022. I also discussed it inside my trading group so that I could see the markets from all angles and get better confirmations. It helps to not trade alone and get confidence and confirmation from your trading buddies. Both were successful trades and acted just as discussed.
The market closed Friday with the US dollar being the strongest and the Japanese yen (JPY) or who I like to call Mr. Jappy being extremely weak. Mr. Jappy needed some MILK and he didn’t have any by the end of the trading day. Every other currency beat Mr. Jappy to a pulp. Even Mr. Aussie jumped in tryna throw a punch here and there, although I’m not sure why exactly. His butt was weak too. Second weakest to be exact.
Mr. Swiss Franc, as dapper as ever, was almost as strong as the US Dollar. Any pair with CHF as the base ended the day in the green. If it was in the quote position such as “X/CHF”, it was in the red all day.
I choose Mr. Franc as the currency I will be discussing first in my report. I have always liked this currency and pairs that include this currency. For some reason, it has always been the easiest for me to trade. You have to find the currency and the pair that works for you. I will be checking out a few others too. This list updates on the daily.
Based on close of the trading day and week Friday, I will be closely stalking….I mean monitoring…the following:
- CHFJPY
- AUDCHF
- AUDUSD
- EURJPY
WHAT’S THE 411 ON MR. SWISS FRANC THIS WEEK?
When looking at just the Swiss Franc currency, I see a double top and a bearish engulfing that formed at the top of that uptrend (at the end of the chart below) which is indicating a bearish bias (I’m not counting that last little green candlestick as the market closed on that one and it is not fully formed). Additionally, Mr. Swiss Franc needs to find some support as he has gotten away from all the EMAS except the 7 MA which it currently closed on top of.
It also looks like it has found some strong resistance at $1.0440 which is a line from a higher time frame I plotted.
With that bearish engulfing, if Mr. Swiss Franc loses some strength and falls below $1.0342, I can see it coming back to anywhere between $1.0320 to $1.0243. How quickly or slowly that happens, time will tell.
Be on the lookout for news that implies weakening or strengthening of the Swiss Franc (CHF) to help you further make good solid trading decisions.
WHAT CURRENCY PAIR?
Keep an eye on Swiss Franc JPY (CHFJPY).
THE TECHNICALS
CHFJPY is extremely bullish. According to the explanation I gave above, CHF currency is very strong and JPY currency is extremely weak; therefore, it takes more yen or Japanese dollars to get the equivalent amount in CHF dollars. It is near overbought however according to the RSI. On the 1HR chart, price is sitting and consolidated on the 7 EMA as the trading day closed.
Also, remember, CHF currency has a bearish engulfing. CHFJPY has a well defined bearish engulfing on its 4hr chart (see below…it almost looks identical to the CHF currency chart I showed above). However, there is a significant sign that CHFJPY has got to pullback. The red candlestick at the top that indicates the bearish engulfing is preceded by 11 bullish candlesticks. ELEVEN. No wonder Mr. Swiss Franc over here K.O.’ing all the other currencies. He been eating his wheaties or spinach or somethin’.
There cannot be that many candlesticks of the same color in a row without a correction happening to balance that out at some point.
INTRADAY TRADE ANALYSIS
That point looks like it may come to a head this week….Or maybe a tail.
I am partial to the fact that it may just be a correction as the pair still looks to be bullish.
If you decide to short this pair, 137.625 to 137.503 are key strong support levels that you may look to take profit at. This area is also where the 50 and 55 moving day averages are sitting where it may find support.
If it breaks through there, the next level is 136.285 which is where the 200 EMA is sitting.
All of this is in regard to the 1 hour timeframe and particularly for intraday traders. I do not typically hold forex trades overnight and the analysis would be different for swing trades.
DISCLAIMER
Every report, I intend to share my thoughts about a currency pair in forex or a coin or token that we are looking at for a possible entry in the cryptocurrency market.
I ALWAYS implore you to do your own due diligence and research. With this report, I hope that it helps you with your trading and investing endeavors.
Keep in mind, I do not consider myself a technical or a fundamental trader NEITHER AM I STATING THAT YOU SHOULD GET INTO ANY COIN OR FOREX TRADE AT THIS MOMENT OR EVER.
This is not financial advice.
Again, please do your own research.
CONCLUSION & GIFTS
That’s it for today.
I talked briefly about the amazing trading group I’m in. If you are interested, send me a message here so we can speak directly. It is a private trading group and I would like to make sure we can help you achieve your goals.
As mentioned earlier, we already have a bias of what to expect because we get a report every month for crypto, stocks, futures, and forex. If you are interested in getting the monthly report ONLY so that you can plan your trades for the weeks ahead, you can check that out here. This is just for access to the report. Again, send me a private message so that we can discuss if you are interested in the actual trading group.
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Trade responsibly. DO NOT use money you can’t afford to lose.
This is not trading advice.
DYOR.
Have Fun and Happy Trading.
